Where Astar Stands Right Now
Astar has had a busy few months. In late January 2026, Sony’s Innovation Fund put another $13 million into Startale Group—the team behind Astar and the Soneium Layer 2 network—bringing their total investment to $20 million. That’s a solid vote of confidence from a major corporation and signals that Astar’s infrastructure buildout has real backing.
At the same time, Japan is heading into a snap general election in early February. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to push through crypto-friendly reforms, including a flatter capital gains tax around 20% and better treatment of crypto losses. For a project like Astar, which has deep roots in Japan, favorable regulation at home could unlock meaningful demand.
Right now, ASTR is trading at roughly $0.00777, down about 1.35% over the last 24 hours. The price action has been quiet, and the technical indicators are showing a bit of hesitation.
Reading the Charts: Momentum and Key Levels
On the 4-hour timeframe, the RSI sits around 44.5—neutral territory, leaning slightly bearish. It’s not oversold yet, but there’s no strong buying momentum either. The MACD is similarly underwhelming: the MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is slightly negative at around -0.000018. That tells us short-term momentum is tilted to the downside, though not dramatically.
Price is also sitting below both the 4-hour simple moving average (around $0.00800) and the exponential moving average (around $0.00789). That’s overhead resistance. Bulls need to reclaim those levels to shift the narrative.
Support and Resistance Zones
Daily pivot analysis gives us a clearer picture of the battlefield. The central pivot is near $0.00780. Above that, resistance levels sit at R1 (~$0.00790), R2 (~$0.00801), and R3 (~$0.00811). Below, support is stacked at S1 (~$0.00769), S2 (~$0.00759), and S3 (~$0.00748).
Right now, ASTR is trading just below the pivot. That’s a no-man’s-land—neither bulls nor bears have full control. A bounce toward R1 is possible if buyers show up, but a slip below S1 could open the door to further downside.
Two Scenarios: Upside Breakout or Further Retreat
The Bull Case
If ASTR can break above the 4-hour EMA and clear R1 resistance, we could see a move toward R2 and potentially R3. That would require some kind of catalyst—positive news on adoption, a regulatory win in Japan, or a pickup in volume. The RSI would need to climb back above 50, and the MACD histogram would have to turn positive. It’s doable, but it needs a spark.
The Bear Case
On the flip side, if ASTR can’t hold the central pivot, the next stop is S1, then S2. A break below S3 would be more concerning, potentially opening the path toward the $0.0070 area or lower. In that scenario, the RSI would likely drop toward 30 or below, and the MACD would widen in the negative zone. It’s not panic territory yet, but it’s something to watch.
What to Watch
The technicals are only half the story. Astar has a packed 2026 roadmap: Tokenomics 3.0 is coming (with a proposed fixed supply of around 10.5 billion ASTR), a rebuilt Astar Portal, and new products like Astar Fi and Guard. Those could all serve as catalysts—if they deliver real usage and not just hype.
Regulatory clarity in Japan is another wildcard. Favorable tax treatment could bring in local retail and institutional interest. But fundamentals need to show up in the data: more active addresses, higher staking participation, real DeFi or gaming activity. Without that, the current price levels are just speculation looking for a reason to hold.
Bottom line: ASTR is at a crossroads. The fundamentals are improving, but the charts need confirmation. Watch the pivots, keep an eye on volume, and pay attention to how the macro picture in Japan plays out. The next few weeks will tell us which way this goes.
