Axelar recently rolled out its “Cobalt” upgrade (v1.2.1), bringing some interesting changes to how the token works. Now, 98% of gas fees get burned instead of going anywhere else, with just 2% heading to community grants. The idea here is pretty straightforward—offset the current inflation rate of about 4.8% and maybe even push the token toward deflation down the road. Early signs look decent: new blockchains are connecting through the Interchain Amplifier, and over 300,000 AXL tokens are getting locked up monthly in verifier reward pools. That’s a good signal for long-term utility and demand.
But here’s the thing—the broader market isn’t feeling so hot right now. Most analysts are calling AXL’s short-to-mid-term outlook bearish. Moving averages are weak, momentum is fading, and the RSI is hovering close to oversold levels. On top of that, there’s been an organizational shake-up that’s got people talking. Circle acquired Interop Labs, the team behind Axelar’s core development, and that’s raised some eyebrows about where the token’s future alignment lies when it comes to engineering and governance.
What the Charts Are Telling Us
Right now, AXL/USDT is sitting at around $0.07234, down about 1.67% over the last 24 hours. Looking at the 4-hour chart, things are mixed. The RSI is near 31.9—just above oversold territory—which suggests some buyers might start dipping their toes in. The MACD is still negative (the MACD line is below the signal line), but the histogram is showing a tiny positive divergence. That could be an early hint that the bearish momentum is running out of steam.
The 4-hour simple and exponential moving averages are both sitting well above the current price, around $0.0765 and $0.0774. That means there’s resistance in that neighborhood. Using daily pivot points, we’re looking at a pivot near $0.07237. Resistance levels stack up at roughly $0.07403, $0.07547, and a stronger barrier around $0.07713. On the flip side, support sits below at about $0.07093, $0.06927, and $0.06783. If AXL breaks below those lower supports, we could see it slide toward $0.06. But if it can hold above the pivot and push past that first resistance, there’s room for a modest bounce.
What Could Happen in the Next Week or Two
If AXL manages to hold around that $0.0723 pivot area and pushes back against the downward pressure, we might see a bounce toward the $0.075–$0.077 zone. That would need some volume behind it, especially since those moving averages above are likely to act like magnets pulling price back down. But if the token can’t regain those levels and drops below $0.0709, a slide toward $0.0678 seems pretty likely. The downtrend structure from October and November is still in place, and until AXL breaks decisively above $0.077 with solid volume, the bears are still in control.
Looking Ahead to Early 2026
Zooming out to Q1 2026, things could improve if the fundamentals line up right. More cross-chain integrations, increasing utility through the Interchain Amplifier, and stable developer activity could all help AXL stage a gradual recovery. In a best-case scenario—where market risk appetite returns and Bitcoin dominance eases up—AXL could potentially climb toward $0.09–$0.11. On the other hand, if macro conditions stay rough or crypto-specific headwinds pick up, prices could drift lower toward $0.06 or even $0.05. That risk gets amplified if the fee burning mechanism alone can’t offset inflation, or if sentiment takes another turn for the worse.
What to Keep an Eye On
Volume and liquidity matter. Low trading volume tends to undermine breakouts and can lead to false moves, so watch for any spikes. The resistance zones between $0.075–$0.077 (where those 4-hour moving averages sit) and the higher daily resistance around $0.0771 will be crucial levels to monitor. News about protocol governance, token utility, and developer team stability—especially anything related to the Circle acquisition—will shape how people feel about the token. And of course, AXL tends to follow broader crypto liquidity trends. If capital starts rotating into altcoins or yields improve, it could benefit. If money flees to safety, losses could accelerate pretty quickly.
