Recent Developments & Market Context
Axelar (AXL) has gone through some significant changes lately. Back in December 2025, Circle bought out Interop Labs—the original development team behind Axelar’s infrastructure—and took control of the intellectual property. That said, the Axelar network itself, along with the AXL token and brand, stayed independent under the governance of Common Prefix.
Meanwhile, the network rolled out a pretty interesting upgrade called Cobalt, which introduced a gas-fee burn mechanism. Now 98% of transaction fees from new cross-chain connections get sent straight to a burn address, while the remaining 2% goes to the Axelar community fund. The whole point is to cut down on inflation and create deflationary pressure when network activity picks up.
More recently, Axelar brought Hedera into its interoperability framework. This move opens the door for more native cross-chain asset transfers and gives Axelar exposure to liquidity across several major blockchains.
Technical Indicator Review & Price Prediction
Right now, AXL/USDT is trading around $0.05360, up about 6.4% in the last 24 hours—so there’s some decent upward momentum building. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at roughly 54.36, which puts it in neutral-to-bullish territory. It’s not overbought yet, but it does show mild buying pressure coming in.
The 4-hour MACD line is at –0.0009037, with the signal line a bit lower at around –0.001348. That gives us a small positive histogram of about 0.0004443. Translation? There’s early potential for a bullish crossover, though the strength is pretty weak at the moment.
Moving averages on the same timeframe add a little more color. The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is near $0.05351, and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is around $0.05341. Both are just under the current price, suggesting slight overhead resistance but also support if the bullish momentum keeps going.
Daily pivot analysis shows key resistance levels at approximately $0.05547 (R1), $0.05693 (R2), and $0.05947 (R3). On the downside, support levels sit around $0.05147 (S1), $0.04893 (S2), and $0.04747 (S3). The central pivot is near $0.05293.
Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Days)
If the current momentum holds, AXL could test that first resistance zone around $0.0555. A clean break above that level might push prices further up toward $0.0569–$0.0595. On the flip side, if it fails to clear resistance, we could see a pullback toward support at $0.0515, or even lower around $0.0489. The key things to watch are volume—does it confirm the upward moves?—and whether RSI continues climbing without getting overbought.
Medium-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks)
The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are both still above the current price, which suggests there’s resistance higher up and a broader bearish undercurrent. Unless something big happens—like major governance progress, a new partnership announcement, or a visible spike in cross-chain usage—the upside might stay capped near those key resistance zones. Downside risk sits around $0.045–$0.050 if negative sentiment or fund outflows dominate.
What This All Means for Traders and Investors
The fee-burn mechanism introduced in the Cobalt upgrade is a real game-changer for AXL’s long-term prospects. As cross-chain activity grows, supply shrinks—which tilts the economics in favor of price appreciation. If the Hedera integration and other blockchain onboarding efforts generate meaningful usage, that bullish case gets even stronger.
That said, Circle’s acquisition of the original dev team without direct benefits flowing to token holders has left some investors uneasy. Questions around leadership continuity and roadmap execution could amplify technical patterns, especially during resistance tests. Investor sentiment matters a lot here, and it could make or break key levels.
Entry Strategy & Risk Management
All things considered—technicals and fundamentals—AXL looks positioned for a cautious bullish drift in the near term, with well-defined resistance and support zones. If you’re thinking about entering, it might be smart to wait for confirmation above $0.0555 with solid volume and a stronger MACD histogram. That would lower downside risk. Target zones would be around $0.0569–$0.0595 if that scenario plays out.
If the price weakens instead, keep an eye on the pivot near $0.0529 and the lower support around $0.0489. Setting stops just below $0.0475 can help limit risk if things turn south, especially with broader market volatility or negative sentiment in the mix.
