What’s Been Happening with Axelar
Axelar has had a rollercoaster few months. Back in December 2025, Circle made waves by acquiring Interop Labs—the core development team that built Axelar—along with all their intellectual property. But here’s the catch: the acquisition didn’t include the Axelar Network itself, the AXL token, or the Foundation. Everything now rests with the community and a new contributor called Common Prefix.
Unsurprisingly, token holders weren’t thrilled. After an initial price spike, AXL saw a sharp selloff as investors worried about what this means for the project’s future. Who’s steering the ship now? Will development slow down? Does the token even capture value anymore? These questions are still hanging in the air.
That said, Axelar hasn’t stopped building. The network now connects over 70 blockchains and recently launched some interesting products, like mXRP—a liquid-staking option that’s seen solid early demand. The “Cobalt” upgrade also introduced a fee-burning mechanism that destroys about 98% of transaction fees, which could push AXL toward deflation if network usage picks up. So there’s genuine utility here, but also real uncertainty about governance and direction.
Technical Picture: What the Charts Are Saying
Right now, AXL/USDT is trading around $0.05063, down about 2.71% over the last 24 hours. The technical setup looks bearish in the short term, but there are hints that sellers might be running out of steam.
Indicators Breakdown
On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at roughly 30.75—just above oversold territory. That means selling pressure has been strong, but we could be nearing a floor. The MACD is negative, with the line sitting below its signal, though the bearish momentum isn’t accelerating hard anymore.
Price is currently below both the simple moving average (around $0.05423) and exponential moving average (around $0.05409), which tells us the short-term trend is still down. On the daily timeframe, key resistance levels are stacked around $0.0518, $0.0531, and $0.0541. Support zones sit lower at $0.0495, $0.0485, and $0.0472. The rate of change indicator is deeply negative, confirming the recent downtrend has been sharp.
Price Scenarios: Where Could AXL Go From Here?
The next few weeks are critical. AXL is at a decision point, and how it behaves around current support will likely set the tone for the coming months.
If Buyers Show Up (Bullish Case)
If the price holds around $0.0495 and buyers start stepping in, we could see a bounce. Early signs to watch for include RSI turning upward or the MACD histogram flipping positive. If that happens, the first target is resistance at $0.0518. Break through that, and AXL could push toward $0.0531, then $0.0541—levels that line up with those moving averages currently acting as ceiling. In a strong recovery, a run toward $0.055–$0.058 isn’t out of the question, though that would need fresh catalysts.
If Support Breaks (Bearish Case)
On the flip side, if $0.0495 doesn’t hold, the next stop is $0.0485. Lose that, and we’re looking at $0.0472—a level where panic sellers and long-term holders might finally capitulate. Given how negative momentum has been recently, this scenario is very much on the table if market sentiment stays sour or if no positive news emerges around the development transition. The MACD could accelerate downward, especially if price stays pinned below the moving averages.
Quick Indicator Summary
• RSI (4h): ~30.7 — getting close to oversold
• MACD (4h): Negative but not accelerating—watch for reversal
• Moving Averages (4h): SMA ≈ $0.05423, EMA ≈ $0.05409 — both overhead resistance
• Pivot Points (1d): Resistance ~$0.0518–$0.0541 | Support ~$0.0495–$0.0472
Price Chart
What to Watch: Risks and Catalysts
Looking ahead, there are a few things that could push AXL higher. New blockchain integrations, growing DeFi adoption, clearer regulatory frameworks, or successful rollout of new features like co-staking and gasless bridging could all spark momentum. The fee-burning mechanism is also interesting—if network usage ramps up, it could tighten supply and support the price.
But the risks are real. The community is still processing the Circle acquisition and what it means for token value. If Common Prefix stumbles in execution or if governance becomes messy, confidence could erode further. There’s also the broader crypto market to consider—if sentiment stays weak, even solid fundamentals might not be enough to turn things around. And any hint of further token dilution, even for development purposes, could spook holders.
Bottom line: AXL is at a crossroads. The support zone around $0.0495 is make-or-break. If it holds and buyers step in, we could see a recovery toward $0.052–$0.054. If it breaks, the downside door opens wider. Technically, we’re closer to a bottom than a top, but it’s too early to call a confident reversal. Keep a close eye on price action and volume over the next couple of weeks.
