The Circle Acquisition and What It Means for AXL
December 2025 brought a shakeup that caught most Axelar holders off guard. Circle acquired Interop Labs—the founding team behind Axelar—along with all their intellectual property. While the Axelar network itself remains operational under community governance, the move left many investors questioning what’s actually in it for token holders going forward.
The market’s reaction was swift and harsh. AXL shed roughly 37% of its value over the following month as confidence wavered. You could almost feel the community sentiment shift overnight—from optimism about interoperability’s future to genuine concern about whether the token still had its champions.
A new development team called Common Prefix has since stepped up, unveiling plans for 2026 that include co-staking mechanisms, gasless bridges, and more chain integrations. It’s a promising roadmap on paper, but execution will be everything. Trust takes time to rebuild, and the price action reflects that uncertainty.
Where AXL Stands Right Now
As of this writing, AXL is trading around $0.07380, up a modest 0.84% over the past day. The technicals paint a picture of indecision. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index sits at 49.2—right in neutral territory, neither oversold nor overbought. The MACD histogram shows a tiny positive reading of about 0.00044, but the MACD line hasn’t crossed above its signal yet, so momentum remains unconvincing.
Price is sandwiched between the 4-hour Simple Moving Average at roughly $0.07330 below and the Exponential Moving Average around $0.07470 above. That’s classic consolidation behavior—the market is catching its breath, waiting for a catalyst in either direction.
Key Levels to Watch
The daily pivot point calculation gives us some clear markers. The pivot itself is around $0.07357. On the upside, resistance shows up at R1 (~$0.07513), R2 (~$0.07617), and R3 (~$0.07773). If AXL can punch through that first resistance level, it would signal buyers are starting to take control again.
On the downside, support comes in at S1 (~$0.07253), S2 (~$0.07097), and S3 (~$0.06993). A drop below $0.070 would likely accelerate selling pressure, with those deeper support zones coming into play. Right now, price is hovering just above the pivot—a true coin flip moment.
What Could Happen Next
Looking ahead over the next few weeks, two distinct paths emerge depending on how sentiment evolves and whether Common Prefix can deliver early wins.
The Bearish Case
If skepticism lingers and the community remains unconvinced, AXL could easily drift down to test that $0.07097 support level, with $0.06993 not far behind. The 4-hour EMA around $0.07470 would act as a ceiling, keeping rallies in check. Should the MACD stay below its signal line and the RSI slide under 40, that would confirm sellers are still in the driver’s seat. Breaking below $0.070 cleanly could open the door to even deeper losses.
The Bullish Case
On the flip side, if governance starts showing real progress—maybe an early feature launch or partnerships that demonstrate the new roadmap isn’t just talk—buyers could step back in. Reclaiming the 4-hour EMA and pushing above R1 at $0.07513 would be the first sign of a reversal. If momentum builds from there, R2 around $0.07617 becomes the next target, with a stretch goal of R3 at $0.07773 if volume picks up and RSI climbs above 60. A MACD crossover would add technical confirmation that the trend is shifting.
Looking Further Out
Over the next two to three months, everything hinges on execution. If Common Prefix successfully rolls out co-staking, delivers on gasless bridging, and expands interoperability to chains like XRPL, Hedera, and Solana, Axelar could reclaim its position as a go-to solution for cross-chain infrastructure. In that scenario, AXL might climb back above $0.10 and even test $0.12, especially if the broader crypto market cooperates.
But if the leadership transition drags on without tangible results, or if the community feels sidelined, AXL could languish in the $0.05 to $0.06 range—or worse. The risk is real, and patience will be tested. For now, the token sits at a crossroads, and the next move will likely tell us which direction this story is heading.
