Recent Developments & Market Context
Axie Infinity is making a comeback as we move through 2026, and it’s largely thanks to some pretty aggressive changes to how the game’s economy works. On January 7, Sky Mavis made the bold decision to completely stop SLP emissions in Origins mode—essentially cutting off the tap that was flooding the market with tokens from bot farms. This move alone slashed in-game token output by more than 30%, which is already taking some of the constant selling pressure off the table.
At the same time, they introduced bAXS, a new non-transferable token that’s tied directly to actual gameplay, staking, and governance. Unlike regular AXS, you can’t just farm bAXS and dump it on an exchange—it only rewards players who are genuinely engaged for the long haul, which should help tighten up the circulating supply even more.
Looking ahead, there are some significant milestones on the horizon. The team is planning to launch Terrariums, a land-based game mode, sometime in Q2 2026. And on June 24, 2026, they’re pulling the plug entirely on Axie Classic V2, which means all the community focus and development resources will shift to Origin. These moves are designed to boost utility, bring in fresh players, and give the economic model some much-needed clarity.
That said, it’s not all sunshine. There are still macro and regulatory clouds hanging over the project. Questions around whether AXS might be classified as a security, plus lingering concerns from past security disasters like the Ronin hack, are real risks that could trip things up down the line.
Technical Indicator Analysis & Price Structure
Right now, AXS is trading around $1.3243 against USDT, up about 1.66% over the last 24 hours. On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at roughly 49.4, which puts it in neutral territory—maybe with a slight bullish tilt. The MACD line is barely negative at –0.00022, but the histogram is showing a positive divergence of around +0.00738, hinting that momentum might be starting to flip bullish.
When you look at support and resistance zones based on daily pivot points, the picture gets a bit clearer. Resistance is stacking up around $1.35 (R1), $1.38 (R2), and $1.407 (R3). On the downside, support is holding at roughly $1.307 (S1), $1.289 (S2), and $1.257 (S3). The price is hovering near its 4-hour SMA at about $1.315, but it’s sitting just under the EMA at $1.330, which suggests there’s a bit of overhead resistance that bulls need to push through.
Price Prediction Scenarios & Trade Strategy
Bullish Base Case
If AXS can hold and build support above the $1.32 to $1.35 range, the next logical test is around $1.60. From there, if everything goes right—Terrariums lands well, bAXS utility starts driving real staking and engagement, and GameFi sentiment stays positive—there’s a reasonable path toward $2.20 to $3.80 by the end of Q2 or early Q3 2026. Some more optimistic analysts even see a breakout scenario pushing toward $5, especially if active user numbers and NFT trading activity pick up steam.
Bearish or Conservative Case
On the flip side, if AXS can’t hold the $1.20 support zone—especially if there’s heavy selling or bad regulatory news—we could see it slide back toward $0.80 or $1.00. There’s also a real possibility that the $1.60 to $2.00 zone acts as a ceiling unless there’s a major catalyst to push through. In a more subdued scenario, the token might just chop around between $1.20 and $1.60 for a while as the market waits to see how the new game modes and mechanics play out.
Trade Strategy & Sentiment Signals
For short-term traders, the key level to watch is a clean break above the 4-hour EMA at $1.3303, followed by sustained strength above $1.35. That would be your confirmation that bulls are taking control. Volume is going to be critical here—any breakout without volume is likely a head-fake.
On-chain signals like staking volume, growth in Axie Score, and engagement metrics in Origin modes are probably going to lead price action. If you see those numbers climbing, it’s a good sign that the ecosystem is actually growing, not just speculating.
For long-term holders, keep an eye on the Terrariums launch, player retention in the MMO and Origin modes, and how effectively bAXS utility is locking up or burning tokens. Regulatory clarity is the wild card here—it could either unlock institutional interest or become a serious drag if AXS gets classified as a security or caught up in tighter EU crypto rules. And given Axie’s history with security breaches, operational risk is something you can’t ignore.
