Binance is holding just 2.5 billion XRP right now—the lowest amount since January 2024 and about 22 percent less than the 3.2 billion it had back in November. Right around the time the balance dropped under 3 billion, XRP’s price jumped 4.5 percent and nearly hit $1.50. That timing isn’t random. When fewer coins sit on an exchange, there are fewer coins available to sell immediately, and that kind of scarcity can push prices up quickly.
Over the past thirteen months, roughly 700 million XRP tokens have moved off Binance into private wallets or other unknown destinations. Most analysts see this as a sign of accumulation—meaning people are buying and holding for the long term rather than flipping for quick profits. Cold storage is the go-to choice when conviction runs high, and that’s exactly what seems to be happening here. The timing lines up with improving sentiment, too. After a tough 2024, derivatives funding rates have steadied, social media chatter has turned positive for the first time since summer, and Ripple’s legal troubles are easing thanks to clearer signals from Washington.
Why Shrinking Exchange Balances Actually Matter
Liquidity keeps markets moving smoothly, but in crypto it can dry up fast. When a major exchange like Binance sees its reserves shrink, the effect gets amplified. Fewer coins available means wider gaps between buy and sell orders, and that can lead to sudden price swings. At the same time, the broader picture is improving. Ripple’s latest technical updates and outreach efforts have softened regulatory attitudes in the U.S., and Binance recently added full support for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin on the XRP Ledger. Most people expected that news to bring more XRP onto the exchange, but the opposite happened—coins kept flowing out. That suggests traders aren’t just positioning for a quick flip; they’re betting on something bigger.
The order books tell the same story. Average liquidity at the top of the XRP-USDT pair has dropped more than 30 percent over the past month, while buyer volume has been creeping higher. In plain terms: demand is waking up just as supply on exchanges is disappearing. Historically, that combination tends to produce sharp price moves that catch short sellers off guard.
What Traders Are Watching Now
The key level to watch is $1.45. Bulls want to see the price hold above that mark on any dips while reserves keep draining. If it breaks lower, the next real support doesn’t show up until around $1.25 on the longer-term charts. On the upside, a strong daily close above $1.55 would break the recent pattern of lower highs and clear the way toward the $1.80–$1.85 zone, where XRP last traded in late 2023.
Funding rates are the wild card here. Perpetual swap contracts are showing their most negative or neutral funding in ten months, which means a lot of traders may already be betting on lower prices. If spot buying keeps up while funding stays low, that sets up a classic short squeeze—where bearish traders scramble to exit and end up pushing prices higher in the process. Traders are also keeping close tabs on wallet trackers: if Binance’s XRP balance drops below 2.4 billion and stays there, it would confirm this drain isn’t just a temporary blip but an accelerating trend.
For now, the momentum seems to favor higher prices. Supply is leaving exchanges just as the overall mood is improving—a combination that has often led to fast, outsized rallies in crypto’s past.
