The $100K Level: Psychological Milestone Meets Technical Resistance
Bitcoin’s recovery from its late-2025 pullback keeps pushing higher, but it’s running into what YouHodler analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino describes as a “wall of supply.” The 50-week moving average has dropped to around $102,000, sitting right above the psychologically important $100,000 mark that everyone’s watching.
Bulls see a clean break above six figures as proof the broader uptrend is still alive. But Severino thinks this optimism might actually plant the seeds for the next reversal. He’s not alone in his caution—there’s solid historical precedent backing him up.
A high-timeframe bearish signal just confirmed: the six-week Logarithmic MACD cross. This indicator has never been wrong about identifying a cycle shift. The last time it appeared, Bitcoin dropped 75% over the following year before bottoming out. According to Severino, the market typically takes 200 to 365 days from that cross to reach capitulation. Translation: if Bitcoin can’t hold $100K in the coming months, we could be looking at a multi-quarter correction.
The key support levels are well established. At $74,000, you’ve got the previous swing low that separates continued uptrend from confirmed downtrend. If we drop to $53,000, price would hit what’s historically been the “oversold” zone on weekly momentum indicators. For now, Bitcoin is technically still making higher highs and higher lows—a tense standoff between bullish price structure and bearish momentum signals.
The Four-Year Cycle Is Being Put to the Test
The four-year pattern that’s guided every Bitcoin cycle since 2013 is now facing its biggest challenge. Normally, 2025—the first full year after a halving—should have delivered a massive blowoff top. Instead, the yearly candle is shaping up as a narrow Doji, which signals indecision rather than the euphoria we’d expect.
Severino blames the stalemate on a messy macro environment: the Federal Reserve’s lingering high-rate policy, fresh tariff threats from Washington, and persistent tightness in global dollar liquidity. None of this creates ideal conditions for a parabolic run.
What’s really interesting is how compressed things have become across higher timeframes. Daily price ranges are shrinking while realized volatility sits near multi-year lows. History tells us this kind of compression usually comes before a massive move in one direction or the other.
“A spark is waiting to ignite this compression into an explosion,” Severino says. He believes the first quarter of 2026 will be the deciding period—either we get an upside continuation that invalidates the bearish signal, or a downward unwind that confirms the four-year rhythm is back in control.
Key Metrics to Watch
• Six-week LMACD: Bearish cross confirmed, historically takes about 300 days on average to reach bottom
• Monthly RSI: Currently hovering around the neutral 50 level; a decisive close below 45 has historically lined up with cycle tops
• Funding Rates: Flat to slightly negative even as price climbs, suggesting leveraged traders are being cautious
Ethereum’s Quiet Comeback Could Change the Game
While Bitcoin battles with macro resistance, Ethereum is quietly showing relative strength. The ETH/BTC ratio has bounced from a two-year low and is now testing trendline resistance near 0.065. Severino thinks this could signal “a dramatic change in leadership” within the crypto market.
But there’s an important nuance here: outperformance during a bear phase often means “falling slower, not rising faster.” Still, Ethereum has structural catalysts going for it that many other large-caps lack—upcoming proto-danksharding upgrades and deeper institutional staking adoption give it a real narrative edge.
If Ethereum holds its ground while Bitcoin pulls back, we could see rotational flows move into high-beta smart-contract platforms and select DeFi blue-chips. This would create a unique alt-season even while broader market conditions remain risk-off. On the flip side, if ETH’s strength fails to inspire demand in other projects, the market might be in the process of purging coins without genuine long-term viability.
Either way, the ETH/BTC ratio is becoming the bellwether that could confirm or contradict the four-year cycle verdict hanging over Bitcoin right now.
