FOMC Expectations: From Tightening Fatigue to a Dovish Consensus
The Federal Open Market Committee is meeting on December 9–10, and derivatives markets are treating it as practically a done deal. Polymarket contracts show a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. That’s the highest confidence level in easing since the Fed started raising rates back in early 2022. The mood has shifted dramatically from “higher for longer” to “let’s nail this soft landing.”
A lot of this turnaround traces back to October’s surprise cut, which came after some weak summer jobs numbers. Even though five voting members had concerns about cutting again so soon, New York Fed President John Williams publicly said on November 21 that “near-term” conditions justified another trim. That effectively ended the hawkish pushback and set the stage for where we are today: Treasury yields are falling, the dollar index is having its worst two weeks since July, and risk assets—especially crypto—are pricing in cheaper money.
For Chair Jerome Powell, this isn’t as straightforward as the 92% odds make it seem. Core PCE inflation is still above target, and shelter costs remain stubbornly high. But with forward-looking indicators pointing to slower growth, Powell seems willing to accept slightly hotter prices in exchange for financial stability. The market’s conviction that the Fed will stay dovish has become a self-fulfilling prophecy: liquidity is already loosening, and crypto is responding exactly how you’d expect.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Macro Tailwind Meets Technical Inflection
After Polymarket odds crossed 90%, Bitcoin reversed a week-long slide and pushed back into the mid-89k range—a historically contested zone that marks the top of a four-month descending channel. The rebound lines up with a rise in the “liveliness” metric, an on-chain indicator that tracks how dormant long-term holder coins are. Higher liveliness has shown up before every major bull phase since 2016, suggesting those dormant coins are moving again as holders anticipate higher prices.
Chart watchers are spotting several encouraging signals: a bullish divergence on the daily RSI, a completed falling-wedge pattern, and a golden cross of the 50- and 200-day moving averages. The immediate challenge sits at $94,600. A solid daily close above that level would break the broader downtrend and open up projected targets at $108k and $116k—levels that mirror liquidity zones last seen during the spring rally. On the flip side, if Bitcoin can’t hold $87k support as traders position ahead of the FOMC meeting, we could see a brief dip into the low-80k zone before buyers make another run at resistance.
On-Chain Vital Signs Reinforce the Bull Case
Beyond price action, the supply-side story favors bulls. Exchange balances are near five-year lows, which means there’s structurally less Bitcoin sitting around ready to be sold. Meanwhile, miner wallets show flat or declining outflows despite the approaching halving—a stance that historically signals confidence in higher spot prices. Combined with a dovish macro backdrop, the probability-weighted outlook for Bitcoin now leans upward, even if it’s not a vertical spike but rather a series of higher lows building into 2026.
Sentiment Spillover: Altcoins and Early-Stage Tokens Catch a Bid
Liquidity rarely stays confined to Bitcoin. Following the rate-cut narrative, mid-cap smart-contract platforms and liquid staking tokens have posted double-digit gains this week. Even the memecoin sector—often the most sensitive barometer of retail risk appetite—is showing signs of life. A good example is the ongoing presale of “Maxi Doge,” which has already pulled in more than $4 million. The project allocates a quarter of raised funds to opportunistic crypto trades, recycling profits into community rewards and marketing. Whether the token can replicate Dogecoin’s legendary rise remains to be seen, but its early momentum highlights renewed investor appetite for asymmetric bets in the long tail of the market.
From a portfolio perspective, the calculus is changing. If the Fed delivers a dovish surprise, leveraged dollar shorts and duration plays will likely outperform—but so will high-volatility digital assets. The coming week isn’t just another macro checkpoint; it could set the tone for crypto’s first sustained tailwind since late 2021. Traders should watch both the dot plot and the first four-hour candle after the FOMC statement drops. Together, they’ll script the next chapter in digital asset price discovery.
