Why One Analyst Sees Bitcoin Heading to $10,000
Bitcoin kicked off the week on shaky ground, and Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence isn’t mincing words about where he thinks it’s headed. The veteran analyst believes we’re entering what he calls a “post-inflation deflation cycle”—basically, once inflation cools down, the riskiest assets tend to get hit first and hit hard.
McGlone’s latest forecast is pretty sobering. He’s warning that Bitcoin could slide all the way down to around $10,000. We’re talking about an 85% drop from current levels, which would rival some of the worst crashes Bitcoin has seen in 2018 and 2022.
So what’s driving this bearish outlook? McGlone points to something pretty straightforward: money is flowing out of crypto and pouring into AI stocks instead. Big tech companies focused on artificial intelligence have been sucking up investor cash, while digital asset funds have been bleeding money for five straight weeks. The problem is that Bitcoin has been moving in sync with tech stocks for a while now. That connection used to be a good thing, but now it’s become a weakness. If the AI hype bubble bursts, Bitcoin could get caught in the crossfire with both stocks and crypto selling off at the same time.
The Technical Picture and What the Data Actually Shows
According to McGlone, $64,000 is the make-or-break level everyone should be watching. If Bitcoin closes below that and stays there, he thinks it would confirm the post-halving rally has fizzled out and open the door to a much deeper drop toward those $10,000 levels from years ago.
The options market seems nervous too. Seven-day volatility just shot above 55% for the first time since January, and traders are increasingly betting on downside scenarios with put options focused on levels as low as $40,000.
Not Everyone Is Panicking Yet
But here’s the thing—not all the data supports a doomsday scenario. Yes, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $678 million flow out last month, which sounds terrible. But total assets in those funds are still nearly three times higher than they were before the ETFs got approved in the first place.
On-chain metrics aren’t screaming disaster either. Profit-and-loss ratios are sitting near neutral territory, meaning long-term holders aren’t dumping their coins in a panic. Funding rates on perpetual futures have cooled off but haven’t gone negative, which suggests the market isn’t in full-blown fear mode—just less frothy than before.
The real wildcard? Macro conditions and what the Federal Reserve does next. Right now, markets are pricing in about a 60% chance of one rate cut before the year ends. If the Fed turns more dovish and cuts more aggressively, it could weaken the dollar and bring risk appetite roaring back. On the flip side, if we get a hot inflation reading, the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative would take hold, drying up the liquidity that helped crypto rebound earlier this year.
What a $10K Bitcoin Would Mean for the Broader Crypto Market
If McGlone’s prediction comes true and Bitcoin does fall to $10,000, the damage wouldn’t stop with BTC holders. Bitcoin miners, who are already dealing with reduced block rewards from the latest halving, would see their profit margins disappear. That would force operations to shut down mining rigs and probably trigger a wave of consolidation where only the biggest, most efficient miners survive.
Altcoins would likely get destroyed. Most alternative cryptocurrencies have way less liquidity than Bitcoin, which means when sellers show up and market makers back away, prices can gap down violently. We’ve seen this movie before, and it’s never pretty.
Stablecoins are another piece of the puzzle worth watching. The total supply of stablecoins—often seen as “dry powder” sitting on the sidelines—has started shrinking after growing for three months straight. If that continues, yields in decentralized finance would drop, pushing more money out of yield-farming protocols and potentially creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral.
And don’t forget about regulators. They’re always watching for signs that crypto chaos could spill over into traditional markets. Extreme volatility and another major crash would give them all the ammunition they need to push for stricter rules around reserves, disclosures, and basically everything else. Even if prices eventually recover, those regulatory changes could stick around and weigh on the market for years.
Whether McGlone ends up being right or this is just another overly cautious prediction, one thing is becoming clear: crypto’s fate right now has less to do with Bitcoin’s technology or halving cycles and more to do with global liquidity and macro conditions. Until those factors turn more favorable, “buy the dip” might not be the no-brainer strategy it used to be.
