Fed Policy Shift: The End of Tightening
The Federal Reserve officially wrapped up its three-year quantitative tightening program
on December 1, 2025, marking the end of a period that drained liquidity from risk assets
like Bitcoin. Now, traders are betting heavily on a rate cut—current odds sit at around
87% for this week’s policy meeting, with expectations for three more cuts by September 2026.
Historically, Bitcoin has struggled when the Fed is tightening, but it tends to perform
well once liquidity starts flowing again. With borrowing costs still high—especially for
tech companies building out AI infrastructure—investors are looking for alternative places
to park their money. A weaker dollar and falling real yields could give Bitcoin the macro
push it needs to climb back toward $100,000.
Technical Signals Point Higher
On the technical side, Bitcoin’s chart structure remains constructive. Real-time data
from derivatives exchanges reveal two key liquidity zones: strong buying interest around
$90,000, which is currently being tested, and a thick layer of sell orders near $94,500.
If buyers can break through that upper resistance, the momentum could carry prices quickly
toward the psychologically important $100,000 level.
Rising Channel Holds Firm
Looking at the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is still trading within a rising channel that’s
been intact since October. The lower boundary of that channel sits around $84,000, and
it’s held firm through multiple tests. Momentum indicators like the RSI have cooled off
from overbought levels, which means bulls need to reclaim $95,000 soon to keep the uptrend
alive. A strong close above that level would likely trigger a faster move toward six figures.
On the flip side, a breakdown below $84,000 would invalidate the pattern and open the door
to deeper losses in the low-$80,000 range.
Speculative Energy Spills Into Meme Coins
While Bitcoin consolidates, traders are hunting for quicker gains elsewhere. Maxi Doge,
an Ethereum-based meme coin, has raised over $4 million in its presale, tapping into the
same community-driven energy that once propelled Dogecoin into the mainstream. The project
plans to use a quarter of its funds for high-risk trading, with profits funneled back into
marketing to grow its user base.
Early backers are hoping for 10 to 50 times returns—nowhere near Dogecoin’s legendary
161,800% surge, but still enough to attract attention from risk-hungry investors. Whether
Maxi Doge delivers on that promise remains to be seen, but the rapid pace of its fundraising
shows there’s still plenty of appetite for speculative, narrative-driven tokens in this market.
