Itaú Asset Management Positions Bitcoin as Portfolio Insurance for 2026
Itaú Asset Management—the investment division of Brazil’s biggest private bank—just told its clients to consider putting one to three percent of their money into Bitcoin starting next year. Lead strategist Renato Eid emphasized that Bitcoin moves independently from Brazilian stocks, bonds, and even commodities like gold, calling it “true uncorrelated protection.”
The timing is interesting. Brazilian investors have watched the real strengthen by 15% against the dollar this year, which amplifies how volatile dollar-based assets can feel in local currency terms. When Itaú ran stress tests on their Bitcoin ETF (BITI11), they found it barely moved in sync with the Bovespa stock index, government bonds, or gold. That low correlation is exactly what makes it useful—not as a moonshot bet, but as a stabilizer when everything else is moving together.
Itaú isn’t alone here. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also started recommending similar two-to-four-percent “satellite” allocations to crypto. When institutions this conservative start converging on the same modest range, it signals something: limited Bitcoin exposure might actually improve portfolio performance without requiring you to become a crypto expert.
Where Bitcoin Stands After a 30% Drop
Bitcoin is trading around $90,500 right now, down more than thirty percent from its October high. The daily chart shows price trapped in a descending channel that’s been in place for two months. Last week, there was a sharp downward spike—what traders call a “bear wick”—where sellers pushed price lower intraday but buyers stepped in and absorbed the selling pressure. That kind of action often signals that demand is quietly building near the lows.
Key levels to watch: support sits at $80,600, while resistance clusters around $102,000 and $116,000. The relative strength index is at 45—neutral territory that could break either way. If Bitcoin can reclaim $100,000 with strong volume, Itaú’s models suggest a potential push back toward six figures by mid-2026. But if it breaks below $80,000, expect a deeper pullback into the high-$60,000s before long-term holders get aggressive again.
Why This Matters for Portfolio Construction
For Brazilian investors, Itaú’s recommendation hits at the intersection of three big themes: lingering inflation, currency swings, and a global shift toward treating digital assets as legitimate portfolio components. By capping the allocation at one-to-three percent, the bank is acknowledging Bitcoin’s wild drawdowns while betting that its potential upside helps offset blow-ups in other parts of your portfolio.
Itaú’s models assume Brazil’s central bank won’t make any dramatic policy shifts. But if easing accelerates, traditional bonds could underperform—making that small Bitcoin position look better by comparison. And if the real weakens after this year’s rally, the currency translation could actually boost Bitcoin’s contribution to returns when measured in reals. In other words, they’re treating crypto like insurance, not speculation.
The Numbers Behind the Diversification Case
Itaú’s quant team crunched five years of weekly data and found Bitcoin’s average correlation to the Bovespa index was just 0.14. Against Brazil’s ten-year government bonds, it was even lower at 0.07. Gold—the classic safe-haven—actually correlated more at 0.22 with those same domestic assets. Translation: for Brazilian portfolios, a modest Bitcoin allocation might improve risk-adjusted returns more effectively than gold, especially when you’re measuring in reals.
That statistical independence is the whole point. Itaú isn’t making bold price predictions. They’re institutionalizing a framework that lets Bitcoin’s unique return pattern do its job when traditional assets all start moving together because of the same macro forces.
