## Recent Developments and Fundamental Drivers
In recent weeks, Compound has faced some serious stress tests that revealed both its strengths and vulnerabilities. Back on **7 November 2025**, the protocol temporarily froze withdrawals for USDC, USDS, and USDT on Ethereum after the deUSD collapse at Stream Finance sparked concerns about potential bad debt and liquidity issues. Thankfully, withdrawals resumed pretty quickly once risk assessments were completed. This incident really highlighted how exposed Compound can be to instability in other DeFi protocols, while also showing that their risk management framework with Gauntlet is doing its job. It’s caught the attention of regulators, but overall it seems to have reinforced confidence in the protocol’s ability to handle crises.
On a more positive note, Compound successfully added **tETH** as collateral in its Arbitrum deployment as of **26 November 2025**. This lets users tap into liquid staking derivatives, which expands the collateral options and brings in the staking crowd. The partnership with Gauntlet has also been extended through September 2026, now covering risk monitoring across more than 50 markets. These moves are strengthening the protocol’s safety profile and making it more attractive to institutional players, assuming the broader market holds steady.
## Technical Indicator Signals
With COMP trading around **$35.16** right now, let’s break down what the indicators are telling us:
– **RSI (4-hour):** Sitting at about 55.6, which puts it in slightly bullish to neutral territory. There’s no immediate sign of being overbought or oversold. The momentum feels fairly balanced with maybe a slight upward lean. For the price to really move up from here, it’ll need to break through resistance levels convincingly.
– **MACD (4-hour):** The MACD line is around 0.8848 versus the signal at 0.9194, with a negative histogram of about −0.0346. This points to some bearish momentum in the short term, though there are hints of potential convergence. If we get some bullish news or a volume spike, we could see this turn around.
– **4-Hour SMA/EMA:** Both are hovering around **$33.85**, and the current price is sitting above these averages, which is acting as support. If COMP can hold above the $34–35 range, that’s a good sign for bulls. A drop below could open the door to further downside toward the next support zones.
– **Daily Pivot Levels (COMP/USDT):**
– Pivot (P): around $35.60
– Support 1 (S1): about $34.21; Support 2 (S2): around $33.20; Support 3 (S3): roughly $31.81
– Resistance 1 (R1): approximately $36.61; R2: about $38.00; R3: around $39.01
These levels give us some clear boundaries for short-term trading. With the price just under R1, the key test is going to be that **$36.50-$37.00** zone.
### Scenario Paths in the Short to Mid Term
Looking at the technicals alongside recent news, here are two realistic scenarios for the next few weeks to months:
– **Bullish Case:** If COMP stays above the SMA/EMA support zone (roughly $33.8–$34.5), the RSI trends upward, and we see volume picking up—especially with positive catalysts like growing TVL or new collateral integrations—the price could break through resistance around $36.6 and test **$38–$39**. From there, **$40–$42** becomes a realistic target. The extended Gauntlet partnership and tETH addition are definitely working in favor of this scenario.
– **Bearish Case:** If cross-protocol risks resurface or macro conditions worsen (think rising interest rates or tighter crypto regulations), COMP could slip back below the pivot at $35.60. From there, we’d be looking at support zones around **$34.2** and **$33.2**, with deeper pressure potentially pushing it down to **$31.8**. The slightly negative MACD reading means the bullish case isn’t a sure thing yet.
## Extended Outlook and Price Projection to Early-2026
Assuming we see moderate improvements in DeFi sentiment—like a stable macro environment, growing adoption of liquid staking, and clearer regulations—COMP could realistically average between **$45-$55** by mid-2026 if bullish momentum holds. If Compound nails its roadmap, especially around RWA integration and risk enhancements, price targets above **$60** aren’t out of the question in a favorable market cycle. On the flip side, a more conservative outlook puts COMP in the **$25-$35** range if the broader crypto market weakens or if structural risks start hurting usage.
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**Final Insight:**
COMP is sitting at a technical crossroads right now. The recent protocol upgrades and improved risk management are strengthening its fundamentals, which is great. But the price really needs to punch through resistance near **$36-$38** and hold that momentum to confirm a bullish trend. Until that happens, the support around **$33-$34** is absolutely critical. Keep an eye on volume, TVL updates, and any governance or collateral changes—those will give you the best clues about which direction this is heading.
