Growing Infrastructure, Rising Volume
CoW Protocol has been carving out a distinctive niche in the decentralized finance landscape. The project recently saw daily trading volumes surge past $50 million—some of the busiest activity since mid-2025. That momentum reflects a broader shift in DeFi, where traders are increasingly hunting for platforms that shield them from MEV (miner extractable value) attacks while keeping gas costs manageable.
The protocol’s footprint now spans Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Polygon, Avalanche, and Gnosis. Each integration preserves CoW’s intent-based order system, which lets users state what they want rather than how to execute it—a subtle but powerful difference when markets move fast.
Revenue generation also got a boost. Following the approval of CIP-34, CoW now captures half the surplus from out-of-market limit orders whenever it beats the user’s specified price. With monthly volumes hitting around $9 billion in July 2025 and more than three million trades executed, the fundamentals suggest the protocol isn’t just surviving—it’s finding its stride.
What the Charts Are Saying
COW/USDT is currently trading near $0.2032, down about 3% in the last 24 hours. The near-term picture, drawn from four-hour indicators, offers a mixed but largely cautious outlook.
The Relative Strength Index sits around 38.66—mildly oversold territory, though not screaming reversal just yet. Meanwhile, the MACD line has slipped below its signal line with a negative histogram, signaling that bearish momentum is still in control. No clear sign of convergence, which means sellers haven’t exhausted their push.
Moving averages tell a similar story. Price is trading well below both the four-hour simple moving average (around $0.2167) and the exponential moving average (near $0.2139). That gap suggests the short-term trend remains downward, with those averages acting as overhead resistance if buyers try to stage a comeback.
On the daily timeframe, the pivot point rests at roughly $0.2066. First support appears near $0.1970, with deeper floors around $0.1914 and $0.1818. Resistance begins at $0.2122 and extends toward $0.2274. These levels will likely frame the action over the coming days.
Two Paths Forward
If COW fails to reclaim the pivot or push back above the moving averages, the door stays open for further downside. A drop toward $0.1970 would test the first support layer. Break that, and $0.1914 becomes critical—losing it could accelerate pressure toward $0.1818. In this scenario, the MACD stays negative and the RSI remains subdued.
On the flip side, if buying interest returns with volume, a move back above $0.2066 could set up a run toward $0.2122. Clearing that resistance opens the path toward $0.2218 and potentially $0.2274. But those are tough ceilings, and breaking through will require more than a short squeeze—it’ll need sustained conviction.
Risks, Variables, and What to Watch
Several factors will determine whether COW finds its footing or continues sliding. Volume matters most. Recent spikes in activity suggest interest is there, but if volume dries up as price approaches resistance, that’s often a red flag for reversals.
Broader crypto market conditions also play a role. Rising Ethereum gas fees actually work in CoW’s favor, highlighting its efficiency and MEV protection. But if Bitcoin or Ethereum stumble, altcoins like COW rarely escape unscathed, regardless of their own fundamentals.
Technically, keep an eye on the MACD histogram. A flip to positive on the four-hour chart, combined with price reclaiming and holding above the moving averages, would strengthen the case for a rebound. An RSI climb above 50 would add weight to that narrative.
Support zones between $0.1970 and $0.1910 are crucial. If those levels give way, downside risk accelerates toward $0.18 or lower.
Price Forecast: The Next Two Weeks
Assuming no major external shocks, here’s what the current setup suggests:
Base case: COW trades between $0.1900 and $0.2200, with resistance near $0.212 and support around $0.197. This range reflects the tug-of-war between cautious sellers and opportunistic buyers.
Bullish scenario: A push above $0.2200 toward $0.2300 or higher. This requires strong volume, reclaiming of moving averages, and a clear break through resistance zones. It’s possible, but it demands more than hope—it needs follow-through.
Bearish scenario: A slide toward $0.1800 to $0.1900. This plays out if the pivot and resistance levels hold firm and bearish momentum continues unchecked.
The technical picture remains fluid. Longer-term daily and weekly charts could reveal broader trend shifts worth considering as well.
