Drift Protocol is trading at roughly $0.19889 USDT right now, down about 4% over the last day. That might not sound dramatic on its own, but zoom out a bit and the picture gets stark. Back in November 2024, DRIFT was riding high near $1.80. Since then, it’s shed more than 80% of its value. The token is clearly stuck in a bearish trend, though some short-term signals hint that things might be leveling out.
There is a bright spot, though. The team just rolled out “v3,” a major upgrade that speeds up trade execution and cuts down on slippage. Those improvements tackle real pain points users have been dealing with, so it’s not just hype. Plus, the broader Solana network is pushing through its own upgrades to boost throughput and finality, which could lift DRIFT’s transaction volume and reliability. Still, the overall mood is cautious. Most technical indicators are still flashing red unless key support levels hold firm.
What the Charts Are Saying
Technically speaking, DRIFT is trading below all its major moving averages—the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages. That’s a textbook sign of sustained bearish pressure. The only exception is the 10-day EMA, where the price is hovering just above. The relative strength index sits somewhere between 40 and 50, which puts it in neutral-to-slightly-bearish territory. It’s not oversold, but it’s not showing much buying enthusiasm either.
Support is forming around $0.21 to $0.22. If the price breaks cleanly below that zone, the next stop could be $0.18 or lower. On the flip side, DRIFT needs to push above $0.3280 to start shifting momentum in favor of the bulls. Further resistance waits near $0.42. The 200-day simple moving average sits much higher and acts as a long-term ceiling. Until DRIFT can break through that, any sustained uptrend is off the table.
Short-Term Outlook: The Next Couple of Weeks
Over the next one to two weeks, the downward drift will likely continue unless fresh demand shows up. If the price manages to stay above $0.21, we might see small relief rallies toward $0.23 or $0.25. Those bounces could come from RSI rebounds or positive news out of the Solana ecosystem. But if $0.21 breaks with conviction, losses could accelerate down to $0.17 or below, especially if broader market conditions turn sour or negative headlines hit.
Mid- to Long-Term Scenarios: Looking Toward 2025 and Beyond
A recovery over the next six to twelve months depends heavily on whether the new features gain traction, whether liquidity providers stick around through the DLP program, and whether Solana’s infrastructure delivers on its promises. If things go well, some market forecasters think DRIFT could climb back to the $0.60 to $0.70 range by late 2026. Other models are more conservative, projecting averages closer to $0.25 to $0.30 for 2025.
Looking three to five years out, if DRIFT can establish itself as a major derivatives hub with solid governance and controlled supply dynamics, price targets in the $1.00 to $2.50 range aren’t out of the question. Some extremely bullish models even project prices above $5 by 2030, but those depend on exponential growth in on-chain trading volume, institutional adoption, and a stable regulatory environment. Those are big ifs.
Risks and What It Takes to Break Out
The risks are real. Sentiment remains weak. Solana still faces technical hurdles around scaling and throughput. Liquidity providers could take losses during volatile periods, putting stress on the protocol. And if DRIFT can’t close above key resistance levels, it could stay trapped in a lower trading range for a long time. Any bad news or protocol hiccups could trigger sharp losses quickly.
For a genuine bullish breakout, several things need to happen. DRIFT has to close above that $0.3280 resistance level. Trading volume needs to pick up on both spot and perpetual markets. The DLP needs strong liquidity backing. Solana’s infrastructure has to prove reliable. And ideally, regulatory clarity or institutional interest would help restore confidence and bring in fresh capital. If several of these line up, DRIFT could shift from consolidation into recovery mode.
Final Thoughts
At $0.1989 and with most indicators pointing down, the most likely scenario in the short term is further downside toward $0.17 to $0.20 if support at $0.21 fails. That said, medium-term upside becomes realistic if the v3 upgrade delivers on its promises and if Solana’s ecosystem holds up. Investors should wait for clear signs of trend reversal rather than chasing overly optimistic predictions. Watch for multiple technical and fundamental catalysts to align before making big bets.
