The State of the Protocol
dYdX wrapped up 2025 on a strong note. The decentralized exchange pushed past $1.55 trillion in total trading volume, with over 12,700 active traders participating. The fourth quarter alone brought in $34.3 billion—the platform’s best performance yet. Nearly 98,000 people now hold DYDX tokens, and more than a third of them are actively staking, locking up around 237 million tokens in the process.
Behind the scenes, the team has been busy. They launched Solana spot trading back in December, finished migrating the bridge from Ethereum to the native dYdX chain, and brought BONK into the fold through their Partner Revenue Share Program. They’ve also rolled out fee holidays for Bitcoin and Solana perpetual markets, hoping to attract more volume. On top of that, governance recently approved version 8.2 of the protocol software, which should make things run smoother and more reliably.
Perhaps most importantly, the buyback program has been ramped up. The protocol now uses up to 75% of its net revenue to buy back DYDX tokens from the market. Combined with a token unlock schedule that winds down by mid-2026, this shift is meant to ease the constant selling pressure that’s weighed on the price for months.
Reading the Charts
Right now, DYDX is trading at about $0.106 against Tether. That puts it just below both its 4-hour simple moving average (around $0.109) and its exponential moving average (roughly $0.108). When price sits under these lines, it usually means the bulls haven’t shown up yet—or they’re taking a breather.
The Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart reads around 44, which lands in neutral-to-bearish territory. An RSI below 50 suggests more sellers than buyers at the moment, though it’s not screaming oversold just yet. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows the signal line sitting above the MACD line, with a slightly negative histogram. That’s another sign that momentum isn’t pointing up right now.
Key Levels to Watch
Daily pivot calculations give us a roadmap for where the action might unfold. The main pivot point sits around $0.107. If buyers step in, the first resistance level is near $0.109, followed by $0.112 and then $0.114. On the downside, first support comes in at about $0.104, with stronger floors at $0.102 and $0.099.
These levels sketch out a fairly tight trading range—basically between ten and eleven cents. Unless something shifts the narrative or brings in fresh volume, DYDX could keep bouncing around inside this box for a while.
What Comes Next
The fundamentals look decent. Fewer tokens hitting the market, aggressive buybacks, new trading pairs, and fee incentives all point in the right direction. But charts don’t care about good news if momentum isn’t there. And right now, the technicals are saying “wait and see.”
If Things Go Sideways
The most likely scenario over the next week or two is more of the same: choppy trading between $0.104 and $0.109. Volume has been steady but not explosive, and without a clear catalyst, traders might just sit on their hands. This range-bound behavior fits with the neutral RSI and bearish MACD setup.
If Bulls Take Control
A clean break above $0.109 with strong volume could flip the script. If that happens, the next targets would be $0.112 and possibly $0.114. Beyond that, $0.12 comes into view—especially if the broader DeFi market catches a bid or if one of dYdX’s incentive programs sparks a surge in trading activity. Confirmation would come from RSI climbing back above 50 and the MACD flipping positive.
If Bears Win Out
On the flip side, losing support at $0.104 opens the door to deeper losses. A drop to $0.102 wouldn’t be shocking, and if selling accelerates, $0.099 is the next meaningful floor. This kind of move could happen if the broader crypto market sours, if buybacks disappoint, or if development roadmap delays shake confidence. RSI falling toward 35 or lower would confirm the bearish momentum.
Putting It All Together
dYdX has a lot going for it structurally. The token supply situation is improving, the protocol is expanding its offerings, and real money is being spent to support the price. But technical indicators aren’t cooperating yet. Price is below key moving averages, momentum is flat to negative, and there’s no obvious breakout signal on the horizon.
For traders, patience makes sense here. Watch for a sustained move above $0.109 with rising volume before leaning bullish. If that happens, aiming for $0.112 to $0.114 seems reasonable. On the other hand, setting a stop below $0.104 protects against downside risk if the chart turns uglier. In choppy conditions like these, tight risk management and scaled entries beat swinging for the fences.
