Price Action: Snap-Back From $3,000 Tests the 0.618 Fibonacci Stronghold
Ethereum spent the first week of November in a textbook bull–bear tug-of-war. Last Monday’s 12 percent decline drove the pair as low as $3,000 before dip-buyers stepped in, forcing a rebound toward $3,400. Technicians note that the recovery arrives precisely at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the March–August up-leg, an area that historically separates corrective pauses from full-scale trend reversals. Beneath that fib line sits a visible volume shelf dating back to the Shanghai upgrade, hinting at strong latent demand. Meanwhile, weekly candles continue to respect an upward channel that began in late 2024, implying a broader trend remains intact so long as $3,050 is not lost on a closing basis.
Resistance, however, is equally well defined. A knot of exponential moving averages from $3,830 to $4,010 has compressed into a single band, creating a technical “ceiling” that bulls must smash to re-energize momentum. Should price vault that zone, chart projections flag $3,783, $4,231 and $4,549 as successive Fibonacci extension targets, while a more ambitious measured move still points toward the August swing high near $4,960. Until either side yields, volatility is likely to coil and set up a decisive breakout.
On-Chain Whales Quietly Load Up as Futures Funding Flips Neutral
Away from the charts, blockchain forensics paints a picture of steady, stealth accumulation. Data pulled on Thursday shows addresses holding at least 10,000 ETH adding close to three-quarters of a million coins since early October—an inflow worth roughly $2.5 billion at current spot prices. A sizable slice of those inflows is attributed to Bitmine Immersion Technologies, whose treasury balance has grown by more than 744,000 ETH in just five weeks. Historically, similar whale build-ups have preceded phase shifts from distribution to markup, reinforcing the argument that the recent sell-off may have been more of a liquidity hunt than a structural trend change.
Derivatives markets echo that view. After spiking into negative territory during Monday’s liquidation cascade, perpetual funding rates have reverted to near-zero, signalling that neither longs nor shorts are currently willing to pay a premium for leverage. Open interest, meanwhile, has risen back to levels seen before the pullback, suggesting fresh positions are springing up—even if outright directional conviction remains muted. This equilibrium often sets the stage for sharp moves when a catalyst finally emerges.
Trading Road Map: The Stakes of a $3,600 Reclaim Versus a $3,300 Failure
With spot price sandwiched between a hardened floor and an equally rigid ceiling, traders are drawing a simple if-then playbook. Reclaiming $3,600, the late-October breakdown point, would confirm a bearish trap and likely send ETH swiftly toward $4,000, unlocking higher extensions if momentum persists. Momentum oscillators already hint at this possibility: while price set a lower low on Monday, both RSI and the composite momentum oscillator printed higher lows—a classic bullish divergence indicating waning selling pressure.
Conversely, a daily close below $3,300 would nullify that divergence and expose the May pivot at $3,050. Breaching that level could cascade into the high-2k region, invalidating the 2024 ascending channel and forcing longer-term holders to reevaluate risk. Until one of those trigger points resolves, market participants may find themselves range-trading or looking to alternative narratives in the ecosystem.
Could a Memecoin Revival Ride on Ethereum’s Shoulders?
Should ETH punch through $4,000, history suggests liquidity will spill into higher-beta ERC-20 assets. That prospect is already attracting attention to new-generation meme and utility hybrids such as Pepenode, whose presale has crossed the two-million-dollar mark on the promise of mine-to-earn tokenomics and triple-digit staking yields. While such projects remain speculative, they underscore the cyclical nature of capital rotation within the Ethereum universe—where a decisive move from the mother chain often ignites outsized rallies in the long tail of assets. For now, though, all eyes remain fixed on whether $3,300 holds or $3,600 bends, the pivotal fulcrum upon which the next crypto narrative is likely to balance.
