Strong Fundamentals Meet Technical Uncertainty
Euler Finance has had an impressive run in 2025. The protocol’s Total Value Locked has climbed past $2 billion, with borrowing activity hitting similar levels—clear signs that users are actually engaging with the platform, not just parking capital. Much of this growth stems from the V2 modular upgrade and an aggressive push into new chains including Base, Berachain, and Sonic. The upcoming EulerSwap AMM is generating buzz too, promising to bundle lending, collateralization, and liquidity strategies into one streamlined system.
What’s particularly notable is that institutional players like Wintermute Ventures and M31 Capital have backed Euler, citing organic growth and capital efficiency as key draws. In other words, the protocol is doing more with less—growing without burning through massive incentive budgets. That’s a refreshing change in DeFi.
Where the Price Stands Right Now
As of the latest data, EUL is trading around $3.94, up roughly eleven cents in the last day. Not exactly fireworks, but steady. Looking at the four-hour chart, the RSI sits at about 43—mildly bearish territory, though nowhere near oversold. The MACD tells a similar story: slightly negative, with the MACD line just above the signal line but still below zero. There’s potential for a short-term bounce, but the momentum isn’t screaming bullish just yet.
The four-hour simple moving average hovers right around $3.91, basically kissing the current price. The exponential moving average is a touch higher at $3.95. If the price can push above that EMA with volume, we might see buyers stepping in more aggressively.
Key Levels to Watch
Daily pivot analysis gives us a useful roadmap. The central pivot sits near $3.95, with support levels stacking up at $3.84, $3.75, and $3.64. On the upside, resistance waits at $4.04, $4.15, and $4.24. Right now, EUL is essentially sitting on the fence—just below the pivot, with meaningful resistance overhead and solid support underneath. This is classic consolidation territory, and the next move will likely depend on whether bulls or bears show up with conviction.
Two Paths Forward
Given where things stand technically and fundamentally, there are two realistic scenarios playing out over the coming weeks and months.
If the Bulls Take Over
Positive catalysts could easily tip the scales. Think fresh news on the synthetic stablecoin launch, strong adoption numbers from the cross-chain expansion, or impressive volume from EulerSwap once it goes live. In that case, the first barrier is resistance around $4.04. Break through that with volume, and $4.15 comes into play, followed by $4.24. A sustained push would need to clear that four-hour EMA at $3.95 first, ideally on increasing volume.
In a more aggressive bull case—say, broader DeFi momentum picks up and Euler’s TVL keeps climbing—we could see a run back toward the recent all-time highs in the $10 to $12 range. That’s ambitious, but not impossible if the fundamentals keep delivering.
If the Bears Dig In
On the flip side, if resistance around $4.04 to $4.15 holds firm, sellers may regain control. A breakdown below the pivot near $3.95 would open the door to support at $3.84, and potentially down to $3.75 or even $3.64 if selling pressure intensifies. Negative catalysts might include broader crypto market weakness, hiccups with Euler’s collateral systems—like the recent xUSD depeg issue—or delays in rolling out key features like the stablecoin or EulerSwap upgrades. If the RSI stays pinned below 50 and the MACD fails to flip positive, that would confirm bearish momentum is in charge.
What to Keep an Eye On
Several near-term events could shift the narrative. Euler’s synthetic USD stablecoin project is expected sometime in Q4 2025, and Season 3 of the Euler XP incentive program is slated for early 2026. How EulerSwap performs once live—particularly in terms of trading volume and user adoption—will be critical. Governance moves, treasury migrations, and ongoing security improvements also matter, as they shape investor confidence.
From a technical standpoint, a decisive break above $4.04 to $4.15 with strong volume could spark continuation to the upside. Failure to clear that zone, especially alongside negative sentiment, would likely trigger a test of the $3.75 support area. Volume, liquidity flows across chains, and broader DeFi risk appetite will all play a role in determining which way EUL breaks from here.
