Regulatory Pressure and Market Context
Back in late November 2024, Tether made it official—they’re pulling the plug on EURT, their euro-backed stablecoin. Token holders got until November 25, 2025, to redeem what they’ve got before Tether stops issuing new coins entirely. They’ve been pretty clear that everyone holding EURT across any blockchain needs to take action sooner rather than later. The whole thing boils down to Europe’s tightening regulations, particularly the Markets in Crypto-Assets framework—better known as MiCA—which puts serious compliance demands on anyone issuing stablecoins.
What we’re seeing now is EURT’s market cap shrinking dramatically, down to somewhere between $27 million and $38 million. That’s absolutely nothing compared to other euro stablecoins out there, and it’s a drop in the ocean next to USDT’s massive presence in the stablecoin world.
Now, EURT was supposed to hold steady at 1:1 with the euro, so trading it against USDT—which tracks the US dollar—should theoretically be pretty straightforward. But here’s the thing: when support is being wound down and no new coins are being minted, both liquidity and confidence start crumbling. This regulatory squeeze combined with supply constraints is creating a perfect storm for increased volatility, potential breaks from the peg, and some pretty unusual price action as we head toward phase-out.
Technical Price Data and Key Indicators
Right now, EURT/USDT is trading around 1.14815, with a 24-hour jump of about +0.2762—that’s roughly a 27.6% spike. For a stablecoin pair, that kind of movement is just bizarre. It screams market dysfunction—probably thin liquidity or panicked trading rather than anything fundamentally changing. Under normal circumstances, a stablecoin should hover near its peg and maintain its value, so this deviation tells us something’s definitely off, whether that’s market stress or speculative games being played.
We don’t have fresh chart data at the moment, but we can still look at the technical indicators that typically matter for illiquid or at-risk assets:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): With such a sharp price jump, the RSI is probably sitting in overbought territory—think above 70 or so. That usually means we’re due for a pullback or some kind of reversion back toward normal levels once the buying pressure eases up.
- Moving Averages: Short-term averages like the 5 or 10-period are likely way above the longer-term ones right now, showing strong short-term momentum but also flashing warning signs of a potential reversal. If you looked at a 50-day moving average, it’d probably be sitting far below the current price, creating a gap that suggests things are stretched too thin.
- Support and Resistance Zones: Since this is supposed to be a stablecoin, the natural resistance should be around 1.0, maybe 1.05 at most. The fact that we’re at 1.148 means we’ve busted through several resistance levels, but holding that position needs actual demand—which seems pretty unlikely given the redemption pressure building up. On the flip side, solid support probably exists around 1.00 or lower if selling really picks up steam.
- Volume Analysis: When you see big price swings in thinly traded assets, volume is usually pretty weak. Without decent volume to back it up, price spikes like this are sitting ducks for sharp reversals the moment sellers take control.
EURT Price Prediction Scenarios through Redemption Deadline
Looking at the current price around 1.14815 USDT per EURT and considering what’s happening with the policy changes, we can sketch out two main paths leading up to late November 2025:
Bullish Distortion (Short-Term Overvaluation): If some traders keep treating EURT like it’s still a viable trading asset despite Tether shutting it down, we might see speculative bursts pushing the price toward 1.20-1.30 USDT temporarily. But don’t expect that to last—with barely any liquidity and no institutional support, we’d probably see quick pullbacks to the 1.05-1.10 range once the speculation dies down.
Bearish Real-World Adjustment: As we get closer to the redemption deadline, holders will start bailing out, liquidity will dry up even more, and the price should start gravitating toward its actual value—probably close to 1 USDT or even below. With redemption becoming mandatory and regulations becoming clearer, there’s a good chance EURT slides into the 0.90-1.00 range in the months before the deadline, especially when exchanges start delisting it or pulling their support.
Base-Case Projection: Over the next three to six months, the most likely scenario is a gradual drift downward from these inflated levels back toward 1.00 USDT. Then, from mid-2025 onward, as the market becomes more aware of the reserve situation and the redemption timeline, the price will probably compress further—maybe down to $0.95 or lower depending on how desperate holders get and how much selling pressure builds up.
Key Catalysts and Risks Influencing Price
- Regulatory deadlines: The November 2025 redemption deadline isn’t negotiable. As it approaches, holders and exchanges alike will have to make moves—delisting and forced conversions could really accelerate the decline.
- Market confidence: Any official word about earlier delisting, withdrawal freezes, or removal from major exchanges will only pour fuel on the fire.
- Supply dynamics: With zero new issuance and such a small market cap, even modest redemptions create massive supply shocks, killing liquidity and amplifying price volatility.
- Alternative euro stablecoins: Competitors that are fully MiCA-compliant will likely siphon off demand and speed up the exodus from EURT.
Final Insight
Even though the price has shot up above 1 USDT, that current level around 1.14815 is probably more about market weirdness than actual value when you think about how stablecoins are supposed to work. The structural issues here are pretty clear—regulatory withdrawal, a looming redemption deadline, and terrible liquidity—all point toward EURT weakening against USDT over time. For anyone trading this, the most likely outcome by late 2025 is a slide toward parity or below, maybe with some volatile spikes if something unexpected happens, but definitely not a sustained comeback unless Tether completely reverses course on shutting it down—and right now, there’s nothing suggesting they will.
