The Flow ecosystem just went through a rough patch. On December 27, 2025, FLOW got hit with a security breach—someone exploited a vulnerability in the execution layer and minted about $3.9 million worth of fraudulent tokens. Validators had to hit the brakes on certain operations immediately. Fast forward to January 2, 2026, and we’re in “Phase Two Recovery” mode. The EVM environment is back up and running, though around 1,500 accounts are still being verified one by one. Both the Cadence VM and Flow EVM are live again, but the damage to user confidence hasn’t fully healed. Making matters worse, Binance threw FLOW on its watchlist over volatility and compliance worries, and there’s been some eyebrow-raising activity with large deposits and withdrawals right before the network halt.
What the Charts Are Telling Us
Right now, FLOW is trading at roughly $0.10454, which represents a solid bounce of about 12.76% in the last 24 hours. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index sits around 46.3—basically neutral territory. It’s not oversold, not overbought, just hanging in the middle with slight bullish leanings.
The MACD on the 4-hour timeframe is still below its signal line, but there’s a positive histogram reading of about +0.0021. That suggests we might be on the verge of a bullish crossover, though it’s not quite there yet. The short-term Simple Moving Average is around $0.0858, and the Exponential Moving Average is near $0.09066—both well below where we’re trading now. That means FLOW has punched through some recent resistance, at least in the short term.
From a daily pivot perspective, the main pivot level sits at roughly $0.08833. First resistance comes in around $0.09067, with R2 and R3 stretching toward $0.09667. On the downside, support levels cluster between $0.08467 and $0.07867. The fact that FLOW is currently trading above both the daily pivot and first resistance suggests buyers are showing up, but these levels are close enough that we could easily see some choppy action.
The Bull and Bear Scenarios
Given everything that’s happened—the exploit, the recovery efforts, the exchange drama—both sides have clear battle lines. For the bulls, the key is holding above that $0.088 daily pivot and establishing $0.10 as a new floor. If that happens and the network continues to stabilize, we could realistically see a move toward $0.12 to $0.14 over the next week or two. That would especially make sense if exchanges start fully reopening deposits and withdrawals, which would improve sentiment considerably.
The bears, on the other hand, have plenty of ammunition. If FLOW slips below $0.08, we’re probably looking at a test of deeper support around $0.078. From there, nervous holders might decide to cut their losses, potentially triggering a cascade toward previous lows. Volatility is still running high, and any negative news about those flagged accounts or additional security concerns could quickly reverse the recent gains.
Price Scenarios for the Next Two Weeks
There are two main paths forward, depending on how the recovery plays out and whether market confidence returns.
Moderate Bull Case
If the network stays stable, the account verification process wraps up without major issues, and exchanges start playing nice again, we’re looking at a move from the current $0.1045 level up toward $0.12–$0.14. That zone will likely be sticky—resistance tends to build at round numbers, and the RSI could hit overbought territory on shorter timeframes. The MACD would need to show sustained positive momentum. The real catalyst here would be renewed trading volume and restored liquidity as confidence returns. Timeframe? Probably 7 to 14 days if nothing else goes wrong.
Bearish or Sideways Risk Case
If trust stays broken—maybe the account verification drags on, or exchanges remain hesitant, or there’s another security hiccup—then FLOW could easily unwind back toward $0.08. If that support fails, we’re potentially revisiting $0.078 or lower. In this scenario, expect high volatility with brief bounce attempts that get smacked down repeatedly. This could play out over the next 5 to 10 days, especially if the Flow Foundation doesn’t deliver clear, reassuring updates.
Levels to Watch and What Matters Most
Support zones are at $0.10, $0.088, and $0.078–$0.080. On the resistance side, $0.12 is the first real test, followed by $0.14–$0.15 if momentum really builds. Keep an eye on that 4-hour MACD for a potential crossover, watch the daily RSI for signals, and track how price relates to the moving averages.
Beyond the technical picture, the broader drivers matter just as much. Public statements from the Flow Foundation about security fixes, exchange announcements regarding deposit and withdrawal status, and data on total value locked and network usage will all influence where this goes. Right now, FLOW is at a crossroads—the technicals show potential for recovery, but the fundamental picture is still clouded by uncertainty. The next couple of weeks will reveal which force wins out.
https://example.com
FLOW/USDT Price Chart with Technical Indicators
