A confidential briefing sent to select clients of Tom Lee’s Fundstrat last week paints a surprisingly bearish picture for crypto markets—one that stands in stark contrast to the firm’s recent public optimism. The internal document, shared by independent researcher Dong Kuai and later verified by several industry sources, suggests traders should prepare for a significant cooldown ahead.
According to Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital-asset strategy, Bitcoin could slide back to the $60,000-$65,000 range during the first half of 2026. The report also projects Ethereum falling to $1,800-$2,000 and Solana potentially revisiting $50-$75. This outlook is a dramatic shift from the firm’s public predictions just three months earlier, when they were calling for Bitcoin to potentially hit $150,000 by late 2025.
In his note, Farrell points to “cycle duration analysis” and “liquidity exhaustion” as key factors that now outweigh the ETF-driven momentum that powered the 2024-2025 rally. His recommendation to clients? “Play defense until strength is confirmed”—essentially marking this period as a distribution phase where smart money begins exiting positions.
Warning Signs Are Already Showing Up
The technical picture supports Fundstrat’s cautious stance. Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a clear rejection at the psychologically important $100,000 level, forming a lower high compared to March’s peak. The price has now closed below its 9-week moving average for three straight weeks—a pattern that often precedes deeper corrections.
Momentum indicators are confirming the weakness. The RSI has drifted down into the high-30s, while the MACD histogram has flipped negative for the first time since late 2024. These aren’t definitive signals on their own, but together they suggest the market is losing steam.
Perhaps more telling are the on-chain flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have completely reversed course, shifting from net buyers to net sellers. These funds have dumped roughly 24,000 BTC since the beginning of Q4 2025. Meanwhile, addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC—a group that includes ETFs, mining companies, and early corporate investors—are growing at their slowest pace since November 2021, right before the 2022 bear market kicked off.
If Bitcoin fails to hold the $81,000 support level, chart analysts are eyeing a drop into the high-$60,000s. That would line up almost perfectly with Fundstrat’s projected bottom.
What This Means for Investors
If history is any guide, deep pullbacks often set the stage for the next major rally. Long-term investors might see this as a strategic opportunity to accumulate quality assets once prices approach what Fundstrat calls the “mid-cycle floor.” Patient buyers who laddered their bids between $60,000-$70,000 during previous cycles often positioned themselves well for the next expansion phase.
For those with higher risk tolerance, smaller-cap projects can sometimes outperform even when the overall market is grinding lower. One example getting early attention is the memecoin Maxi Doge (MAXI), which has already raised over $4 million in its presale. The project offers 72 percent annual staking rewards and positions itself as a community-driven alternative to traditional memecoins, aiming to capture Dogecoin-style virality during a quieter market phase.
Of course, moonshot bets like these come with significant risk, especially in a cooling market. What’s becoming clear is that the environment has changed. The days of indiscriminate liquidity lifting all boats appear to be over, at least for now. Surviving a potential 2026 downturn will likely require picking projects carefully—focusing on those with genuine community engagement, transparent tokenomics, and enough financial runway to weather the storm.
For blue-chip assets like Bitcoin, the key may be patience. If Fundstrat’s forecast plays out and Bitcoin does revisit the $60,000-$70,000 range, that zone historically aligns with post-halving retracement levels—potentially offering a calculated entry point before the next bull phase begins.
