Recent Developments & Market Context
Grass is a DePIN project built on Solana that’s doing something pretty interesting—it lets people monetize their unused internet bandwidth to help supply datasets for AI training. The project just pulled in $10 million in a bridge funding round, with Polychain and Tribe Capital leading the charge. This cash injection is being used to scale up their data infrastructure and build out live context retrieval capabilities, which should keep them busy through late 2025 and into early 2026.
The fundamentals look solid on paper, but investor sentiment has taken a beating due to supply concerns. On October 28, 2025, roughly 181 million GRASS tokens hit the market—that’s about 72.4% of what was circulating at the time. Unsurprisingly, this massive unlock spooked investors and triggered price drops along with some serious volatility.
On the bright side, the actual usage metrics tell a more optimistic story. Network activity keeps climbing, and the amount of data being scraped daily has been hitting new records. Subscriber growth remains steady, and their Sion upgrade has improved how they handle different types of data—text, images, even 4K video. So while the tokenomics are messy, the underlying infrastructure is actually getting stronger and more useful.
Technical Indicator Analysis & Price Action
Right now, GRASS is sitting around $0.3214, down about 4.08% over the last 24 hours. From a technical standpoint, it’s not looking great—the price is trading well below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which signals bearish momentum for the medium to longer term. The RSI is hovering near oversold territory at around 30–32, which could mean we’re due for at least a short-term bounce. The MACD histogram is showing some early signs of flattening or maybe a slight upward divergence, but we haven’t seen a proper bullish crossover yet.
Support is sitting at that psychological $0.30–$0.32 level, which lines up with the 2024 low near $0.3126. That’s where buyers might actually step in and defend the price. On the flip side, resistance is going to show up around $0.45 to $0.50—that’s where old volume clusters and moving averages are stacking up. Breaking cleanly above $0.50 would be what’s needed to really flip the script toward recovery mode. The tricky part is the weak liquidity, which means big sell-offs from those unlocked tokens or whale accumulation could swing the price dramatically in either direction.
Short-Term vs Medium-Term Outlook
Looking at the next few weeks, the oversold RSI and any relief from unlock pressure could lead to a bounce or at least some consolidation around current prices. If you’re trading this, a reasonable upside target would be somewhere in the $0.40–$0.45 range, assuming we don’t see another wave of heavy selling. On the downside, if support at $0.30–$0.32 breaks, we could see things slide toward $0.25.
For the medium term—say three to six months out—there’s actually some room for optimism if things go right. If they can deliver on that live context retrieval feature, if the funding news brings renewed interest, and if demand from AI and data clients stays strong, the momentum could shift positive. If the protocol shows growing revenue and node usage, and if investors get over their unlock fears, GRASS could realistically push back toward $1.00 or even higher. But that’s a lot of ifs—it would need strong volume, favorable market conditions overall, and real, visible progress on the product side.
Risks, Catalysts, and Key Variables
Key risks: More big token unlocks are still on the table, there’s high circulating supply to deal with, liquidity is thin, and any broader crypto market downturn would hurt. There’s also the risk of depending too much on a concentrated group of AI and data clients—if their demand shifts, it could cause problems.
Potential catalysts: Strong revenue growth quarter over quarter would help a lot. Technical breakouts like a MACD crossover above the signal line or RSI staying above 40 would be bullish signs. Improved network metrics—more daily data scraped, more active nodes—would back up the growth story. Positive news like new partnerships, regulatory clarity, or the introduction of staking and governance features could all move the needle. The institutional funding helps build confidence, but it only matters if they actually execute on their plans.
Primary variables to monitor: Keep an eye on exchange reserve flows to see whether tokens are being held or dumped immediately after unlocks. Staking participation rates matter. Watch liquidity movement across major exchanges. And don’t ignore the macro picture—overall altcoin sentiment and trends in AI infrastructure investment will play a big role in where GRASS heads next.
