What’s Happening with Kamino Right Now
Kamino (KMNO) is a DeFi protocol built on Solana that started out focused on lending but has recently made a bold move toward serving institutions. At Solana Breakpoint back in December 2025, the team announced they’re expanding into six new areas: Fixed Rates, Borrow Intents, Off-Chain Collateral, Private Credit, an RWA-focused DEX, and a developer toolkit. The driving force behind this pivot? A massive $2.59 billion in total value locked, which represents roughly 75% of all lending activity on Solana.
To make this institutional play work, Kamino brought in Chainlink’s oracle systems through a Multi-Price Oracle setup. This helps keep price feeds accurate and reduces the risk of stale data—something that becomes critical when you’re dealing with real-world assets and institutional money. Just last month, in February 2026, they launched a vault partnership with RockawayX focused on market-neutral RWA strategies, showing they’re serious about creating new yield opportunities for USDC holders.
But it’s not all smooth sailing. Competition is heating up from platforms like Jupiter Lend, and the broader DeFi market has been shaky. Retail interest has cooled off, Solana’s price has been volatile, and the meme coin craze has pulled attention away. All of this creates a challenging backdrop for KMNO’s price action.
The Technical Picture
Right now, KMNO is trading at around $0.029655, down roughly 9.11% over the last 24 hours. The four-hour chart doesn’t look great—the price is sitting below both the simple and exponential moving averages (both near $0.03039), which tells you there’s downward pressure in the short term.
The RSI on the four-hour is hovering around 44, which means momentum is weak but not oversold yet. Meanwhile, the MACD line has dipped below the signal line with a negative histogram, confirming that bearish momentum is in control for now.
Looking at daily pivot levels, the main pivot point sits at $0.02976—that’s your first resistance to watch. Below that, support levels are at $0.02946 (S1) and $0.02925 (S2). On the upside, resistance levels stack up at $0.02997 (R1), $0.03027 (R2), and $0.03048 (R3). The Rate of Change indicator on the daily chart is also showing negative momentum.
Where the Price Could Go From Here
The Bullish Scenario
If KMNO can push back above the pivot at $0.02976 and hold it, that would be a meaningful short-term win. Breaking through $0.02997 would open the door to $0.03027 and potentially $0.03048. If momentum really picks up—with the MACD flipping positive and RSI climbing past 50—we could see a run toward $0.032 to $0.035 over the next month or two. That would require both improving market conditions for DeFi and Solana, plus visible traction from Kamino’s new institutional products.
The Bearish Scenario
On the flip side, if the price can’t reclaim that pivot, things could get uglier. A break below support at $0.02946 would likely lead to a test of $0.02925, and possibly down to $0.02895. Given that the MACD is bearish and the price is below key moving averages, continued selling pressure isn’t hard to imagine—especially if macro news turns sour or the DeFi sector weakens further. In a worst-case near-term scenario, we could see prices drift down to the $0.0275–$0.0285 range. An RSI drop into the 30–35 zone might offer a bounce opportunity for nimble traders.
What Could Change the Game
There are real reasons to be optimistic longer-term. Kamino’s institutional products could gain serious traction, especially as RWA adoption grows. The Chainlink integration adds credibility, and the TVL growth shows real demand. If they can prove out these new revenue streams, sentiment could shift fast.
But the risks are just as real. Macro headwinds like rising interest rates or regulatory crackdowns on DeFi could hurt. Solana’s price matters a lot here since many Kamino positions are SOL-denominated. Token unlocks and potential dilution are also worth watching. And until Kamino can show clear product traction with numbers to back it up, sentiment may stay cautious.
What This Means for Your Strategy
If you’re looking to trade KMNO, patience is probably your friend right now. Wait for a confirmed hold at the pivot or S1 support, ideally with rising volume and a positive MACD crossover. Short-term scalpers might find opportunities in the volatility, but keep your stops tight—the downside risk below current supports is real.
For longer-term holders, the current price is more than 50% off previous highs, which could be an attractive entry point if you believe in Kamino’s institutional pivot. If they execute well on RWA and fixed-rate credit products, there’s potential for significant returns over the next 6 to 12 months. Just remember that this bet assumes no major regulatory shocks or macro meltdowns along the way.
