What’s Driving Sentiment Right Now
Nervos Network (CKB) finds itself at an interesting crossroads. Two major upgrades are either live or just around the corner, and they’re generating cautious optimism among community members and developers alike.
First up is DAO 1.1, a governance overhaul expected to land mid-February 2026. This isn’t just another routine update—it brings on-chain voting and a treasury system that actually puts decision-making power in the hands of token holders. For a network that’s been building quietly in the background, giving the community real control over protocol direction feels like a meaningful step forward.
Then there’s Fiber Network v0.6.1, slated for mainnet deployment sometime this quarter. This layer-2 upgrade is heavily focused on Bitcoin-related use cases—think micro-payments, cross-chain functionality, and privacy features through payment channels. It positions Nervos squarely in the emerging BTCFi (Bitcoin DeFi) space, which could be a smart niche if adoption picks up.
But it’s not all smooth sailing. The Force Bridge exploit back in June 2025 still casts a shadow. Roughly $3.9 million was lost in that incident, and while the network has moved on operationally, it’s the kind of thing that sticks in people’s minds—especially when deciding whether to trust a bridge with their assets.
Network usage tells a mixed story too. Cumulative addresses keep climbing, which suggests a loyal base of users hanging around. But daily transactions and new address creation have both trended downward. That’s a yellow flag—it means the existing community is engaged, but fresh blood isn’t flowing in at the same pace as before.
Reading the Charts
As of early February 2026, CKB is trading around $0.00199335 USDT. The technical picture is neither screaming bullish nor flashing red alarms—it’s more of a wait-and-see moment.
The 4-hour Relative Strength Index sits at roughly 39.4. That’s below the neutral 50 mark, hinting at weak momentum, but there’s still room for a bounce if buyers decide to step in. The MACD tells a slightly more encouraging story: the MACD line is just above the signal line with a small positive histogram forming. It’s not a strong signal, but it does suggest the downward pressure might be easing.
Short-term moving averages—both the Simple Moving Average around $0.00212763 and the Exponential Moving Average near $0.00211047—are hovering above current price. That means sellers have left resistance in their wake. Until CKB can push back above those levels, upside momentum will likely stay capped.
Daily pivot analysis paints a clearer picture of where price might find support or hit a wall. The pivot point is around $0.001978, with resistance levels at $0.002029 (R1), $0.002061 (R2), and $0.002112 (R3). On the downside, support shows up at $0.001946 (S1), $0.001895 (S2), and $0.001863 (S3). The one-day rate-of-change indicator clocks in at roughly -18.5%, which reflects strong recent selling pressure.
If Things Go South
Let’s talk worst-case first. If CKB can’t reclaim the $0.00211 zone where those moving averages sit, the path of least resistance is probably downward. The first real test would be around $0.001946. Lose that, and the next floor is likely $0.001895, with $0.001863 acting as a last line of defense before things get uncomfortable.
This scenario becomes more likely if volume dries up, if broader crypto markets take a tumble, or if any hiccup around the upcoming upgrades spooks holders.
If Buyers Step Up
On the flip side, a clean break above $0.00211 would be the first sign that momentum is shifting. From there, CKB would need to clear $0.002029, then $0.002061, and finally $0.002112 to really open up some breathing room.
If all those hurdles get cleared—especially on decent volume—a move toward $0.00230 or even $0.00250 isn’t out of the question. That kind of rally would likely need a catalyst: maybe Fiber launches smoothly, governance changes land well, or there’s renewed buzz around quantum-resistant infrastructure (one of Nervos’ longer-term talking points).
What It Means for Traders and Long-Term Holders
If you’re trading short-term, the $0.00211 level is your litmus test. Watch how price behaves there. A breakout with solid volume could be a tactical entry point. A rejection? Probably time to tighten stops or step aside.
For those thinking longer-term, the fundamental story is more interesting. DAO 1.1 could foster better alignment between the core team and the community, which often leads to more sustainable growth. Fiber’s mainnet could genuinely drive adoption if BTCFi catches fire. But don’t ignore the risks—past security issues and slowing on-chain activity are real concerns that could weigh on price if not addressed.
Given the current setup, a realistic near-term trading range probably sits between $0.00185 and $0.00215. A break in either direction will likely set the tone for the next leg—up or down.
