Recent Fundamentals and Market Sentiment Shift
PENDLE recently went through some major structural upgrades. The biggest change? They’ve switched from vePENDLE to a liquid staking model called sPENDLE. Now when you want to withdraw, you’ve got two options: wait 14 days, or pay a 5% fee for instant exit. The protocol also built in revenue buy-backs of up to 80% and cut emissions by roughly 30%. Most people see these as bullish moves—better liquidity, more scarcity, and stronger incentives for long-term holders.
That said, there’s been some counterweight. Arthur Hayes recently sold off $3.1 million worth of PENDLE tokens, which introduced some short-term selling pressure and shook confidence a bit. So the picture isn’t entirely rosy.
When you look at social metrics, things get interesting. There’s been a sharp uptick in social media buzz, influencer chatter, and the staking rate has climbed to about 44%—all pointing to strong engagement. But at the same time, large amounts of PENDLE have been moving to exchanges, which usually signals profit-taking or preparation for sell-offs. So fundamentals and developer momentum are solid, but sentiment is all over the place.
Outside forecasts don’t agree on much either. Some AI models predict the token will drift downward or stay flat in the coming months, with prices ranging between $0.90 and $1.20. Longer-term projections are a bit more optimistic, hinting at a potential recovery into the mid-single digits over the next few years. Of course, all of that depends on adoption rates, growth in the yield market, and the broader macro environment.
Technical Indicators and Key Levels
Right now, PENDLE/USDT is sitting around $1.1754, down about 0.98% over the last 24 hours. The 4-hour RSI is at 45.29—just under the neutral 50 mark. That tells us there’s mild bearish momentum, but nothing screaming oversold yet. The 4-hour MACD is negative too, with the MACD line below the signal line and a small negative histogram. Short-term momentum isn’t looking great.
Price is also trading below both the 4-hour Simple Moving Average (around $1.19833) and the Exponential Moving Average (around $1.19882). Those are acting as resistance right now. If the price manages to push above those levels, it could signal a shift in momentum.
On the daily timeframe, here’s where the key levels stand. Immediate resistance sits at $1.2353 (R1), $1.2997 (R2), and $1.3613 (R3). Support zones are at $1.1093 (S1), $1.0477 (S2), and $0.9833 (S3). The daily pivot is around $1.1737, and since PENDLE is trading just under that, there’s mild resistance overhead. If bearish conditions stick around, there’s room to fall toward those support levels.
Short-Term Scenarios (Next 1-7 Days)
If sellers keep the upper hand, PENDLE will likely test support around $1.1093 (S1). A break below that opens the door to $1.0477 (S2), and if things get really messy, $0.9833 (S3) becomes the deeper support zone. Broken support levels often attract attention and could spark oversold bounce attempts.
On the flip side, any rally needs to clear the $1.198–$1.200 range first, breaking through those 4-hour moving averages. Once above daily R1 at $1.2353, the path opens toward $1.300 (R2) and possibly $1.361 (R3)—but only if there’s solid volume behind the buying pressure. Without that volume and broader market strength, resistance in that zone could cap any gains pretty quickly.
Mid- to Long-Term Outlook (Weeks to Months)
Looking further out, the technicals lean cautious to moderately bearish unless macro conditions or adoption pick up meaningfully. A few things to watch: Can sPENDLE’s buy-back mechanism generate consistent demand? Will TVL and DeFi yield demand hold up? And what happens with broader market trends like risk appetite and interest rates?
In a best-case scenario—strong protocol usage, rising yield demand, and no major selling waves—PENDLE could climb toward $1.50–$2.00 over the next several months. If negative catalysts dominate instead, expect consolidation between $1.00–$1.30, or even a retrace toward $0.90–$1.00. Sentiment and liquidity will be the key inflection points to watch.
