What Just Happened to SAFE
After nearly two years locked up, the SAFE token finally became transferable—and the market’s reaction was swift and brutal. Within hours of the unlock, the price plummeted more than 19%. Right now, SAFE is trading around $0.185, down another 5% in the last day alone.
The token unlocking wasn’t a surprise. It came after a long governance process involving the Safe DAO, which governs the Safe protocol—a widely used multisignature wallet infrastructure. With the unlock, roughly 427 million tokens entered circulation out of a total supply of one billion. That puts the fully diluted valuation north of $2.8 billion, though the actual market cap is much lower given how many tokens remain locked or held by early stakeholders.
Beyond the unlock drama, the Safe team has been quietly building. They spun up Safe Labs, a foundation-owned subsidiary, and handed it direct control of Safe{Wallet}, the platform’s flagship product used by millions. The goal is clearer governance, better product development, and eventually, revenue streams that tie back to the token itself. Recent upgrades like Signing UX v2 and integrations with protocols like Morpho have been well received by the community, but none of that has been enough to stem the selling pressure.
The takeaway? SAFE is caught between fundamental promise and short-term supply shock. Token holders who waited two years finally have liquidity—and many are taking it. That’s creating a challenging environment for anyone trying to time an entry or assess where the price goes next.
Reading the Charts
Technically speaking, SAFE is in rough shape. The token is deep in a downtrend, and most indicators point to continued weakness in the near term. Here’s what the charts are saying right now.
Support and Resistance
The first real support zone sits between $0.15 and $0.12. If sellers keep pushing, that’s where buyers might start to show up. Below that, $0.10 becomes the floor—a psychological level where long-term believers could view the token as oversold and worth accumulating.
On the flip side, resistance is stacked above current price. The $0.25 to $0.30 range is immediate overhead, where early sellers are likely waiting to exit. Beyond that, $0.40 to $0.50 represents the trading range SAFE occupied before the unlock chaos began. Getting back there will require serious buying pressure or a meaningful fundamental catalyst.
Momentum and Moving Averages
Moving averages—both the 50-day and 200-day—are sitting well above the current price, acting as resistance rather than support. That’s a classic sign of a downtrend. Volume has been weak, suggesting that buyers aren’t stepping in yet. Indicators like RSI and MACD are likely deep in oversold territory, which could signal exhaustion—but oversold doesn’t mean reversal. It just means the selling has been relentless.
Short-Term Outlook
Over the next one to four weeks, expect SAFE to test the $0.15 support level. If that breaks, $0.12 is next in line. Any bounce attempts will likely stall around $0.25 unless there’s a significant shift in sentiment or a fresh news catalyst. Without that, the path of least resistance remains down.
Medium-Term Possibilities
Looking out one to three months, things get more interesting. If Safe Labs delivers on its product roadmap—new wallet features, deeper DeFi integrations, staking or yield opportunities—the token could start reclaiming lost ground. A move back toward $0.40 is possible, especially if the broader crypto market cooperates. But that scenario depends on utility catching up to valuation, and right now, utility is lagging.
Risks, Catalysts, and Price Scenarios
What Could Go Wrong
The biggest risk is simple: more selling. With so many tokens freshly unlocked, supply pressure could persist for weeks or even months. If trading volume stays low and sentiment doesn’t improve, SAFE could drift toward $0.10 or lower. Broader market conditions matter too. If Bitcoin stumbles or regulatory pressure heats up, altcoins like SAFE tend to suffer disproportionately.
There’s also execution risk. Safe Labs has ambitious plans for Safe{Wallet} and the broader ecosystem, but delays or missteps could erode confidence. If the team doesn’t deliver on promised features—or if those features don’t drive meaningful token utility—investors may lose patience.
What Could Go Right
On the upside, SAFE has real potential catalysts. Enterprise adoption is one. If major institutions or DAOs start using Safe infrastructure for treasury management or custody, that could drive demand for the token. New DeFi integrations that allow SAFE holders to earn yield or participate in governance more actively would also help.
Then there’s technical momentum. If SAFE manages to break above its 50-day moving average on strong volume, that could flip sentiment from bearish to neutral or even bullish. Sometimes all it takes is one clean breakout to shift market psychology.
Three Price Scenarios
In a bearish scenario, SAFE continues sliding toward $0.12 or $0.10 as selling pressure overwhelms any buying interest. This is the most likely outcome in the very short term unless something changes fast.
In a baseline scenario, the token finds footing between $0.15 and $0.30, consolidating as the market digests the unlock. Price action would be choppy, with gradual upward bias if fundamentals improve.
In a bullish scenario—driven by strong product launches, enterprise wins, or a broader crypto rally—SAFE could push back toward $0.40 within a few months. If overhead resistance breaks and volume surges, $0.50 isn’t out of the question. But that scenario requires a lot to go right.
