Recent Developments & Market Inputs
Solayer has been making some interesting moves to expand its ecosystem lately. They recently rolled out sUSD, which is essentially a stablecoin that actually generates yield and is backed by U.S. Treasury bills. It’s completely permissionless, which has people talking about their push into the Real-World Assets space. The Solayer Foundation also announced their governance token, $LAYER, which will come out in phases—Season 1 is already underway, rewarding early users who got involved with their staking and stablecoin products through a points system based on stake time and referrals. All of this points to growing utility, especially for folks using DeFi on Solana.
That said, not everything has been sunshine and rainbows. There’s been some worry among traders about token unlock schedules and big transfers from team wallets straight to exchanges. We’ve already seen some massive price swings—in some cases, prices tanked more than 50% around unlock events. Whale movements, like millions of LAYER tokens heading to Binance, have traders concerned that there’s bearish pressure building up as more supply hits the market.
Key Technical Indicators: Momentum, Trend, Support & Resistance
Right now, LAYER is sitting at around $0.22094 USDT, down about 3.17% over the last 24 hours. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the RSI is hovering around 42.28—it’s below the neutral 50 mark but hasn’t hit oversold territory yet. That tells us there’s some bearish momentum, but we’re not seeing panic selling just yet.
The trend indicators aren’t looking great either. The 4-hour Simple Moving Average is at about $0.23068, and the Exponential Moving Average sits at roughly $0.22856. Price is trading below both of these, which confirms we’re in a short-term downtrend. The MACD line is sitting at around -0.00309, below its signal at -0.00161, with a negative histogram of about -0.00148. All of this adds up to continued bearish pressure in the near term.
When we look at the daily pivot points, the main pivot is at $0.22087. Resistance levels are stacked at R1: $0.22183, R2: $0.22347, and R3: $0.22443. On the downside, we’ve got support at S1: $0.21923, S2: $0.21827, and S3: $0.21663. The current price is basically sitting right on that daily pivot, which means we could see some back-and-forth movement until something significant happens to push it one way or the other.
Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Days to 1-2 Weeks)
If the sellers keep pushing, we’re probably going to see price test and potentially break through that first support at $0.21923. If that gives way, we could be looking at moves down to $0.21827 or even $0.21663, particularly if there’s more bad news or additional token unlocks adding fuel to the selling fire. On the flip side, getting back above that pivot at $0.22087 is really important here. For the bulls to take control in the short term, price needs to push through $0.22183 and ideally close above $0.22347, which lines up with those moving averages we mentioned earlier. That’s where we’d likely see some resistance kick in. Keep an eye on volume—any rally without strong volume could just be a trap.
Medium-Term Projection (Weeks to Months)
Looking further out, if Solayer can actually deliver on their roadmap—things like InfiniSVM scaling, increased adoption of sUSD, and those real-world integrations through the Emerald Card—there’s definitely potential for LAYER to build some stronger support levels. But that’s a big “if” that depends on a few things going right. They need to be transparent about those token unlocks, stop the large wallet dumps that spook the market, and show real, sustained user growth. If all those pieces fall into place and developers start paying attention, we could see the price testing resistance zones around $0.24–$0.26. But if trust breaks down or we see massive supply hitting the market, the downside risk is very real, with $0.18–$0.20 being the next meaningful support zone to watch.
