Recent Progress and Market Reality
Solayer has been making real technical strides. December 2025 saw the launch of its InfiniSVM Mainnet Alpha, which hit around 300,000 transactions per second with sub-second finality—an impressive achievement that shows the project can actually deliver on its scalability promises. The team also secured $10.5 million in a token sale, one of the stronger raises of the year, giving them solid financial runway.
But here’s the catch: despite these wins, LAYER has dropped roughly 43% over the past three months. The market clearly isn’t convinced yet. Concerns around adoption speed, fierce competition in the space, and potential liquidity issues are keeping sentiment cautious. It’s a reminder that good technology doesn’t automatically translate to price gains—especially in crypto.
What the Charts Are Saying
As of now, LAYER is trading around $0.17098, up about 2.36% in the last 24 hours. Looking at the 4-hour charts, we’re seeing a fairly neutral picture with a slight bearish tilt:
The RSI sits near 50, which means neither buyers nor sellers have the upper hand right now. It’s balanced, but also a bit directionless. The 4-hour Simple Moving Average is at roughly $0.17319, sitting above the current price and acting as near-term resistance. The Exponential Moving Average is at about $0.17174, also slightly above price, suggesting mild downward pressure in the short term.
The MACD tells an interesting story: it’s slightly negative with the MACD line below the signal line, but the histogram has turned modestly positive. That could hint at a shift if buyers start stepping in with more conviction.
Key Price Levels to Watch
Using daily pivot points, we can map out the battlefield. The pivot sits at approximately $0.17030. Resistance levels are stacked at R1 around $0.17480, R2 near $0.17830, and R3 at roughly $0.18280. On the flip side, support comes in at S1 around $0.16680, S2 near $0.16230, and S3 down at $0.15880.
In the next few days to a week, if LAYER manages to push above the EMA at $0.1717 and hold, we could see a test of $0.1748. Break that, and $0.1783 comes into view, with $0.1828 possible if broader market sentiment turns bullish. But if it can’t hold above the SMA and cracks below $0.1668, we might be looking at $0.1623 or even $0.1588, especially if selling volume picks up.
Looking out two to four weeks, the picture gets murkier. If adoption signals strengthen and the infrastructure keeps delivering, LAYER could challenge $0.20. But the base case is probably consolidation between $0.16 and $0.18, with downside risk toward $0.15 if markets turn sour or token unlocks create selling pressure. The upside hinges on volume, broader crypto market strength, and continued development. The downside risks? Token unlocks and macro headwinds.
What This Means for Traders and Investors
If you’re trading this, risk management is everything. Going long near current levels? Keep stop-losses tight, ideally just below $0.1668 or $0.1623 depending on your timeframe. Consider scaling in gradually—adding to positions if LAYER breaks above $0.1748 with confirming volume and MACD momentum. Don’t go all in at once.
For longer-term holders, keep an eye on unlock schedules, staking adoption rates, and whether real-world integrations like sUSD are gaining traction. The fundamentals look promising on paper, but they need to translate into actual on-chain usage and network growth. Promises only go so far.
The Edge Cases
Let’s talk about what could go wrong—or very right. On the downside, a big token unlock could flood the market with selling pressure. A broader crypto downturn would drag LAYER down with it. Infrastructure failures, like delays in InfiniSVM upgrades or bridge issues, could shake confidence. In those scenarios, we could easily see drops toward $0.14 or $0.15.
On the flip side, if institutional money starts flowing in or major DeFi protocols integrate Solayer, price could rocket past $0.20 faster than expected—potentially into the $0.22 to $0.25 range if conditions align perfectly. It’s unlikely, but it’s not impossible. That’s crypto for you: the extremes are always in play.
