SOON token has gone from breakout star to cautionary tale in a matter of weeks. After explosive early gains, the token has shed more than 70% of its value from recent peaks, leaving investors wondering whether this is a temporary setback or the beginning of a longer slide.
The Perfect Storm: Unlocks and Market Weakness
The decline didn’t happen in a vacuum. On November 23, a massive unlock released 15.21 million SOON tokens—roughly 4.3% of the entire circulating supply—into the market all at once. The immediate result was predictable: sellers rushed to cash out, and the price tumbled.
The SOON Foundation tried to contain the damage with a governance proposal called SIP-004, which aimed to stake those newly unlocked tokens instead of letting them flood exchanges. But the plan fell flat. Without strong community participation in the vote, the proposal couldn’t generate enough momentum to calm the markets.
Making matters worse, the broader crypto market has been in risk-off mode. Bitcoin dominance is climbing, the fear and greed index is showing elevated caution, and altcoins across the board are struggling with weak volume. SOON got caught in the crossfire. Technical indicators paint a grim picture: the RSI is deep in oversold territory below 30, and the token is trading well beneath its 30-day moving average of around $0.85.
Where Support and Resistance Stand Now
Right now, SOON is clinging to a support zone between $0.35 and $0.40. If that floor gives way, the next stop could be around $0.30, and possibly lower if panic takes over. The technical setup shows sustained bearish momentum, with MACD crossovers and trendlines all pointing down.
On the upside, resistance clusters between $0.70 and $0.85. Those levels represent previous volume nodes and moving averages that the token would need to reclaim before any meaningful recovery can take hold. Breaking through would require either a dramatic shift in market sentiment or some serious positive news from the SOON ecosystem—new partnerships, protocol upgrades, or a surge in actual usage.
The wild card here is volatility. SOON has been swinging hard in both directions, which means false breakouts are entirely possible. Traders need to keep a close eye on upcoming token unlock schedules, governance activity around staking proposals, and whether staking adoption picks up enough to absorb selling pressure.
What Comes Next: Scenarios and Realistic Expectations
Analysts are split into two camps. The conservative base case sees SOON drifting between $0.30 and $0.40 through early 2026, with modest upside to around $0.80 if supply pressures ease and the broader market recovers. Some bullish forecasts stretch toward $1.00 or higher by late 2026, contingent on SOON’s SVM rollup technology gaining real traction and staking rewards keeping tokens off exchanges.
The optimistic scenario—a return to $2 or $3—would require everything to go right: reclaiming key resistance levels, building genuine platform utility, avoiding future dump cycles from unlocks, and riding a wave of renewed speculative interest. Possible? Sure. Likely without major catalysts? Not really.
As of now, SOON is trading around $0.36, down more than 11% in the last 24 hours alone. It’s firmly in correction territory, and the path back to glory will depend as much on market timing and narrative as it will on fundamentals. For anyone watching or holding SOON, the next few weeks will be critical.
