Where Things Stand Right Now
Starknet’s native token STRK is currently trading around $0.0848, down about 3% in the last 24 hours. Despite the price slip, there’s been some genuine progress happening beneath the surface. The team recently shipped version v0.14.1, which introduced Blake-hash prover optimization—essentially making proof generation cheaper and faster. They’ve also rolled out a fee market reform similar to Ethereum’s EIP-1559, which should make transaction costs more predictable and potentially deflationary as base fees get burned.
Institutional players are starting to pay attention too. We’re seeing integrations like BTCFi incentive programs, and U.S. custodians such as Anchorage have begun staking STRK. That’s the good news. The bad news? Starknet’s mainnet went down on January 5, 2026 due to a sequencer-prover mismatch—never great for confidence. Plus there’s a massive token unlock scheduled for mid-January, with roughly 127 million STRK hitting the market. That kind of supply injection usually doesn’t end well for price in the short term.
What the Charts Are Telling Us
The technical picture is pretty lukewarm right now. On the 4-hour chart, STRK’s RSI is sitting at 42.9—not oversold, not overbought, just kind of meh with a slight bearish tilt. The MACD histogram is negative and expanding, which means downward momentum is picking up steam. Both the exponential and simple moving averages are hovering above current price levels (around $0.0873 and $0.08896 respectively), creating a ceiling that’s proving tough to break through.
Looking at the daily timeframe, pivot point analysis puts the current price just barely above its daily pivot of roughly $0.08467. First support sits around $0.08113, with second support down near $0.07757. On the flip side, resistance shows up at $0.08823 (R1) and $0.09177 (R2). If STRK can punch through that first resistance level convincingly, we’d likely see a run toward R2. But if it can’t hold above the pivot or first support, we’re probably headed down to test that $0.077 area.
The Elephant in the Room
That mid-January token unlock is the biggest near-term risk hanging over STRK. History isn’t kind to tokens during large vesting or staking unlocks—we’ve seen STRK drop during these events before. Combine that with relatively modest daily trading volume, and you’ve got a recipe for some choppy volatility. The $0.088–$0.092 resistance zone has been tested multiple times recently and hasn’t budged. Until buyers can break through there with conviction, the path of least resistance might actually be down.
Where STRK Could Go From Here
Given all the mixed signals, there are really two main paths STRK could take over the next few weeks. In the bullish scenario, if STRK manages to break cleanly above that $0.088–$0.090 resistance zone on solid volume, we could see a push toward $0.095–$0.100. Get past that psychological $0.10 level, and Fibonacci extensions suggest potential targets around $0.110–$0.125. For that to happen, we’d need to see the staking mechanism absorb most of those unlocked tokens, no more network hiccups, and continued institutional interest through BTCFi and other integrations.
The bearish scenario is probably more likely in the immediate term. If STRK can’t hold above that daily pivot around $0.0847, we’re looking at a slide down to $0.081 support. Break that, and the next stop is probably $0.0775, possibly even $0.075 if the token unlock creates real selling pressure or if the broader altcoin market turns sour.
What This Means for Your Strategy
If you’re trading STRK short-term, tight risk management isn’t optional—it’s essential. Consider setting stops just below that $0.081 support level to protect your downside. And if you’re eyeing a long entry on a breakout, wait for a clean move above $0.090 with actual volume behind it before jumping in. Don’t chase fakeouts.
For longer-term holders or institutional players, there’s actually a decent fundamental story here. The tech improvements around scalable proofs, fee predictability, and Bitcoin integration are genuinely valuable—assuming the network can stay stable and avoid more outages. The key is timing. With that unlock looming and macro uncertainty still swirling around crypto markets, patience and precise execution will make all the difference between catching a breakout and catching a falling knife.
