Where Things Stand Right Now
SushiSwap is currently trading at around $0.30 USDT, up roughly 6% in the last 24 hours—a modest sign that buyers are showing some interest. But zoom out a bit, and the picture gets more complicated.
The protocol is holding about $100-110 million in Total Value Locked across multiple blockchains, with Ethereum taking the lion’s share. That number has been pretty flat lately, with only small daily inflows and even a slight weekly decline. Not exactly the explosive growth you’d want to see in a bull market.
Then there’s the governance drama. On December 14, 2025, a vote passed to increase SUSHI’s annual token emissions from 1.5% to 5%. The goal? Fund liquidity mining programs, build up protocol-owned liquidity, and beef up rewards for the aggregator stack. Sounds reasonable on paper. The problem? Nearly 100% of the vote came from a single wallet. That kind of centralization raises some serious red flags about who’s really calling the shots.
What the Charts Are Telling Us
On the shorter timeframes—say, the 4-hour chart—SUSHI is sitting comfortably above both its simple and exponential moving averages (around $0.288 and $0.290). The RSI is hovering near 64, which suggests momentum without being overheated. The MACD has crossed bullish too, with the histogram ticking up. In other words, the short-term technicals look decent.
But pull back to the daily and weekly views, and things cool off fast. The daily RSI is languishing in the mid-30s to low-40s range. Price is sitting below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which now act as overhead resistance. The broader trend? Still bearish, with MACD on higher timeframes either negative or just barely recovering. Volatility remains high, meaning sharp moves in either direction are on the table.
Here are the key levels to watch over the next few weeks:
- Resistance: $0.304, $0.307, $0.312
- Support: $0.296, $0.290, $0.287
These levels have been tested multiple times recently and tend to hold during intraday swings.
Three Scenarios for the Next Few Months
The Bullish Path
If the emissions increase actually works—meaning it attracts new liquidity and doesn’t just dilute existing holders—SUSHI could break through resistance around $0.303–$0.306. From there, a run toward $0.312 or even $0.320 isn’t out of the question. You’d want to see a decisive daily close above $0.306, backed by rising volume and a strengthening MACD histogram.
The Middle Ground
More realistically, given current conditions, SUSHI probably trades sideways for a while—bouncing between $0.290 and $0.306. It might test resistance near $0.310, but without a clear catalyst, upside could stay capped. Support around $0.295 should hold unless something breaks. This scenario assumes no major shocks, either positive or negative.
The Bearish Scenario
If sentiment turns sour—whether from inflation concerns tied to higher emissions, weak trading volume, or backlash over governance centralization—SUSHI could slip back toward $0.287–$0.290. If that support cracks, we might see a drop to $0.270–$0.280. A break below $0.287 would likely accelerate selling, especially if the weekly MACD rolls over and moving averages continue to act as resistance.
Risks and What to Watch For
The biggest risk right now is straightforward: more tokens entering circulation without enough demand to absorb them. That’s what happens when you triple emissions. If revenue and usage don’t scale to match, you’re looking at a supply overhang.
The governance situation is also worth keeping an eye on. When one wallet can swing a major vote almost single-handedly, it makes the protocol less attractive to institutional players and serious DeFi users who value decentralization.
On the flip side, here’s what could turn things around:
- Meaningful protocol upgrades—new integrations, better aggregator features, or expansion to new chains
- Revenue growth that outpaces the dilution from higher emissions
- A real pickup in trading volume and liquidity inflows across SushiSwap’s pools
- Technical confirmation on higher timeframes—think daily or weekly MACD turning bullish and RSI climbing back above 60
Bottom line: SUSHI is at a crossroads. Short-term momentum looks okay, but the longer-term picture is murky. The emissions vote was a big gamble. If it pays off, we could see a breakout. If it backfires, the downside is real. Keep a close watch on volume, governance developments, and those key support and resistance zones.
