The MELANIA memecoin burst onto the scene on January 19, 2025, launching on Solana with all the fanfare you’d expect from a celebrity-branded crypto project. It shot up past $13 almost immediately, drawing in waves of speculative traders hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. But what goes up fast often comes down even faster. Within just days, the token lost somewhere between 50% and 70% of its value, leaving many investors nursing heavy losses and wondering what went wrong.
The crash wasn’t just bad luck or market sentiment turning sour. Reports emerged that insiders and wallets connected to the project had been offloading tens of millions of tokens, cashing out for millions of dollars while retail traders were left holding the bag. Lawsuits followed, with allegations that MELANIA was essentially a pump-and-dump scheme dressed up with celebrity endorsement. The legal filings even described Melania Trump as little more than “window dressing” for what some claim was a coordinated cash grab.
Perhaps most alarming is the token’s supply structure. More than 90% of MELANIA’s total supply sits in wallets controlled by the team or insiders. That level of concentration means those holding the keys can flood the market whenever they choose, crushing the price in the process. Since launch, there’s been almost no meaningful development—no audits, no governance rollout, no technical upgrades. It’s become clear this project runs on hype and branding, not substance. And now, with regulatory scrutiny mounting due to its political connections and the allegations swirling around it, the risks are piling up fast.
What the Charts Are Telling Us
Right now, MELANIA is trading around $0.11 to $0.12, which means it’s down roughly 90% from its peak. By almost any measure, that puts it deep in oversold territory. The 24-hour chart shows slight upward movement here and there, but zoom out to 30 days and you’re looking at a 12% to 14% decline. These aren’t the moves of a coin finding its footing—they’re the moves of a project slowly bleeding out.
Volume has been weak and inconsistent, mostly driven by retail traders rather than any serious institutional interest. There are occasional spikes that seem to line up with big wallet movements, but nothing that suggests real momentum building. On-chain data confirms what many suspected: insiders are still selling, dumping tokens steadily and keeping downward pressure on the price. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index probably show oversold readings below 30, but oversold doesn’t mean a rebound is coming—it just means the selling has been relentless.
Support seems to be forming around the $0.05 to $0.10 range, where the price has spent some time consolidating. If that floor breaks, things could get ugly fast, with the next stop possibly around $0.03 to $0.05. On the upside, resistance sits near $0.20 to $0.25, levels where previous attempts at recovery ran out of steam. Getting past that would take serious buying pressure—and right now, there’s no sign of it.
Where MELANIA Could Go From Here
Looking ahead over the next one to three months, there are a few possible paths this token might take. None of them inspire much confidence, but here’s what the technical picture suggests.
The most likely scenario is continued decline. If MELANIA can’t hold that $0.08 to $0.10 support zone—and with insiders still dumping and retail confidence shattered, there’s no guarantee it will—the price could easily slide toward $0.05 or lower. Volume would stay weak, and resistance at $0.20 would remain far out of reach unless something major changes. This is the bearish base case, and right now, it feels like the path of least resistance.
A moderate rebound isn’t out of the question, though. If selling pressure eases up, or if some positive news emerges to stir up community interest again, MELANIA could bounce back to somewhere between $0.15 and $0.20. You might see short-term moving averages cross over in a bullish direction, giving traders a reason to take a shot. But that resistance zone around $0.20 has proven tough to crack, and without higher volume backing the move, any rally would likely fizzle out quickly.
Then there’s the long-shot bullish scenario. This would require something fundamentally different to happen—transparency around token unlocks, a major partnership announcement, dismissal of the legal cases, or some kind of verified project upgrade that proves this isn’t just a hype vehicle. If any of that materializes, the price could try to push back toward $0.30 or even $0.50. But that’s a big “if.” Without a dramatic shift in how this project operates, that kind of move seems unlikely.
What Investors Need to Watch
If you’re holding MELANIA or thinking about entering, there are a few critical factors to keep an eye on. First and foremost: insider selling. As long as team wallets keep dumping tokens onto exchanges, downward pressure will persist. Watch on-chain data closely for large transfers to exchanges or sudden spikes in supply hitting the market.
Regulatory pressure is another wildcard. Investigations and lawsuits are underway, and depending on how those play out, MELANIA could face delisting from exchanges, loss of liquidity, or restrictions on how it can be promoted. Any negative regulatory outcome could send the price spiraling even further.
Volume is also key. Without sustained, meaningful trading activity, any upward moves will be fragile and short-lived. Bulls need to see real buying interest, not just quick flips by speculators. Finally, keep an eye on classic technical signals—moving average crossovers, RSI divergence, or the MACD histogram turning positive. These could give early warning of a relief rally, though in MELANIA’s case, even those signals need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Bottom line: MELANIA is sitting in a high-risk, low-confidence zone. A rebound is technically possible, but only if the selling stops and something meaningful changes with the project itself. Otherwise, the most realistic outlook is a slow grind lower toward weaker support levels, with no clear floor in sight.
