Recent Developments and Market Context
THORChain has been busy in 2025, pushing through more than 220 merge requests and 11 major software upgrades. The protocol added native support for XRP and TRON, introduced features like limit and rapid swaps, and launched Rujira—an app layer designed to host native DeFi products. These changes signal a shift from being just a cross-chain DEX toward becoming broader DeFi infrastructure. Better utility, interoperability, and scalability matter when you’re trying to stay competitive in this space.
At the same time, the team introduced TCY (ThorChain Yield), a new token that converted roughly $200 million in defaulted debt into something like equity. TCY holders will get 10% of future protocol revenue, adding another economic layer beneath RUNE.
But it’s not all positive. Liquidity across pools has dropped significantly. RUNE needs to maintain a high bond-to-liquidity ratio for security, and that’s become a problem. Add in weak altcoin sentiment and macro pressure favoring Bitcoin dominance, and you’ve got headwinds pushing RUNE into a downtrend.
Technical Indicators and Price Action
RUNE is currently trading around $0.55835 against USDT, up about 1.45% over 24 hours. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the picture is mixed:
The RSI sits at roughly 52—right in neutral territory with no strong signal either way. The MACD line has crossed slightly above the signal line with a positive histogram around 0.00177, hinting at potential short-term bullish momentum if it holds. Price is testing the 4-hour exponential moving average near $0.55803 and sits above the 4-hour simple moving average at $0.55457, which suggests modest upward pressure in recent hours.
Zoom out to the daily timeframe, though, and the broader momentum turns bearish. The 14-day RSI is in the high 20s to low 30s—deeply oversold territory. All major moving averages (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day) are positioned above current price. That’s a classic “strong sell” setup. The daily MACD remains negative with a histogram showing downward momentum is still in control.
The bond-to-pool ratio being squeezed is limiting liquidity additions in certain pools. This creates a defensive posture among stakeholders and restricts supply-side activity, which doesn’t help price discovery or upward momentum.
Price Levels and Forecast Scenarios
Looking at daily pivot levels, the pivot point sits around $0.55933. Resistance comes in at R1 ($0.56167), R2 ($0.56433), and R3 ($0.56667). Support levels are S1 ($0.55667), S2 ($0.55433), and S3 ($0.55167). These zones represent the near-term battlegrounds.
Near-Term Scenarios (1–4 Weeks)
If the bears stay in control: A drop below S1 at $0.5567 could trigger tests of S2 ($0.5543) and possibly S3 ($0.5517). The bond-to-pool security constraint might amplify downside if liquidity stays elevated while bonded supply remains low.
Base case—sideways to mild recovery: With daily RSI oversold and the 4-hour MACD turning positive, a bounce toward the pivot ($0.5593) or R1 ($0.5617) seems plausible. Resistance around R2/R3 (roughly $0.5643–$0.5667) could cap any upward move unless broader altcoin sentiment improves.
Bullish reversal: This needs multiple catalysts—strong volume (especially cross-chain swaps), improved LP bonding, and positive news like a successful V3.14.0 rollout. A break above R3 around $0.5667 could open the door toward $0.60 or higher. But this scenario looks unlikely unless macro tailwinds align.
Medium-Term Outlook (1–3 Months)
Beyond the next few weeks, the outlook leans bearish unless key technical resistances break. Daily moving averages will likely keep acting as overhead resistance. Without improved sentiment or strong usage metrics, price could drift toward $0.50 or lower, especially if macro pressures—rising rates, risk aversion, Bitcoin dominance—intensify.
On the upside, sustained swap-volume growth and deflationary pressure from fee burns tied to usage could help build a recovery foundation. But the market may need proof that recently delivered upgrades (cross-chain scalability, app layer integrations) are actually working before broader confidence returns.
If bearish forces dominate, $0.45–$0.50 might become the new support zone before further damage. If bullish momentum returns with volume and strong protocol signals, $0.65+ could be tested again over several months. The mid-term pattern fits a triangle or descending channel unless a high-volume breakout through resistance occurs.
Final Thoughts
RUNE’s position is fragile. Important support holds just below, but multiple resistance layers above—paired with bearish daily indicators—suggest any short-term relief rallies are vulnerable unless very strong demand resumes. Investors should watch bond-stake metrics and cross-chain swap volume closely. These are the levers that could shift sentiment.
Risk-aware traders may want to wait for confirmation above pivot or R1 zones (around $0.5617–$0.5643) before entering. Those taking defensive positions might tighten stops near S1 (about $0.5567).
