Descending Channel Sets a Cautious Tone
XRP has been stuck in a tight range between $1.77 and $1.92 for the past week, trapped inside a four-week descending channel that started after hitting $2.11 in late November. The 50-period exponential moving average on the four-hour chart is creating resistance overhead at $1.88, while the 100-period EMA hovers near $1.92. Candlesticks are showing short bodies with plenty of doji and spinning-top patterns—classic signs that buyers and sellers are in a standoff rather than panic mode.
Momentum indicators are telling the same story. The relative strength index is sitting in the low-40s, and the negative directional movement index has gone flat, suggesting that sellers aren’t completely in control anymore. Right now, the market is treating $1.77 as its anchor point. If we see a decisive hourly close below that level, things could accelerate down toward $1.65, where September’s consolidation base is waiting. On the flip side, a push through the EMA resistance at $1.92 would create the first higher high since the $2.11 peak, opening up targets at $1.96 and the psychologically important $2.05–$2.10 zone.
Legal Milestones and On-Chain Data Shape Broader Sentiment
Beyond the charts, bigger forces are at play with XRP’s story. Ripple’s legal battle with U.S. regulators is moving into its remedies phase this January, and both sides have already filed scheduling briefs that put a final ruling sometime in the second quarter of 2026. The lack of major courtroom drama since the split verdict from the summary judgment has led to lighter but steadier trading volume—daily volume is averaging around $1.53 billion, down 22% from November’s peaks but nowhere near a complete liquidity drain.
On-chain metrics show that whale addresses holding 10 million XRP or more have kept their distribution steady at 41% of circulating supply for three straight weeks. That consistency suggests these big players aren’t repositioning ahead of the upcoming legal deadlines, which could be read as quiet confidence or simple patience.
Derivatives Hint at Neutral-to-Slightly-Bullish Bias
Funding rates on the major perpetual-swap platforms are hovering between +0.007% and +0.012% every eight hours—positive, but barely. That small premium shows just how tightly wound sentiment is right now. Traders are willing to pay a little extra to stay long, but not enough to suggest they’re feeling euphoric about what’s coming next.
Key Levels and Scenarios Into Year-End
• Immediate resistance: $1.88–$1.92
• Breakout validation: 4-hour close above $1.92
• Upside targets: $1.96 (minor), $2.05–$2.10 (major)
• Primary support: $1.77
• Bear-trigger: Sustained move below $1.65
With volatility compressed and fundamental catalysts still weeks away, traders are essentially buying time and optionality. They’re accumulating near the lower end of the range and taking profits as price approaches the EMAs, waiting for whatever event tips the balance—a legal update, a macro shock, or just a momentum burst. Until that spark shows up, the market’s message is straightforward: hold the range, harvest short-term swings, and keep one eye on the calendar.
