Spot ETF Window Could Reorder the Crypto League Table
XRP closed the week at $2.78, capping a month of steady bids as the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) prepares to decide on six spot-ETF applications between 18 October and 25 October.
The filings—submitted by Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, CoinShares, and WisdomTree—hold the
potential to make XRP the third cryptocurrency after Bitcoin and Ethereum to secure a U.S.-listed
spot exchange-traded fund. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s own spot-ETF launch in January sparked more than
$15 billion in cumulative inflows; a comparable approval for XRP could trigger a liquidity
rotation away from over-weight Bitcoin positions into the faster settlement network that Ripple’s token
represents. Social-media sentiment backs this view: a popular “XRP Spot-ETF Tracker” post on X has already
clocked hundreds of thousands of impressions, underscoring retail and institutional anticipation alike.
Market structure reflects the growing attention. Three-day average volumes have risen 42 % month-to-date,
open interest on large exchanges is at an eight-month high, and the spread between offshore and regulated U.S.
venues has narrowed to under ten basis points—an historical tell that traditional desks are positioning ahead
of a binary regulatory event. The result: XRP printed an intraday high of $2.82 on Friday,
the strongest single-day close since mid-August.
Derivatives Data and Banking Ambitions Signal Deepening Institutional Thirst
Beyond spot markets, the derivatives complex is flashing a similar vote of confidence. CME Group reports
$1 billion+ in XRP futures open interest, the fastest quarterly build among all listed crypto
contracts. The exchange will widen access further on 13 October with the launch of XRP and
Micro-XRP options, giving portfolio managers a regulated venue for hedging ETF-related flows well ahead
of the SEC’s decision window. Notably, the term structure has flipped into slight contango—a classic pre-event
signature—indicating that traders are pricing higher volatility after mid-October.
Ripple’s Pending Bank Charter: A Credibility Wildcard
Running parallel to market developments is Ripple’s application for a U.S. national bank charter, now in the
hands of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Should approval arrive, Ripple would gain direct
access to Fed payment rails, dramatically shortening settlement cycles for institutional clients and likely
making XRP a more attractive collateral asset. While the process could stretch past year-end, legal observers
contend that the SEC’s posture on the token will heavily influence the charter decision—meaning October’s ETF
verdict could cascade into the banking sphere as well.
Price Structure: Descending Triangle Coil Nears Resolution
Technically, XRP remains trapped in a descending triangle dating to July: lower highs compress against a
horizontal support band at $2.70. The 50-day moving average currently caps rallies at
$2.96, while the 100-day sits just below at $2.61. Relative-strength
momentum hovers near 40, neither oversold nor divergent, underscoring the stalemate. Option-market skews, however,
favour topside protection for the first time since March, suggesting smart money is bracing for a break higher.
Trade setups remain binary:
bulls require a daily close above $3.00 to unlock targets of $3.25 and $3.42, whereas bears
eye failed rallies near $2.90 for a push back to $2.70 and, on extension, $2.59. With catalysts clustering
in the next four weeks—ETF rulings, CME options, and the bank-charter watch—volatility compression is unlikely
to last. One decisive candle could turn the current equilibrium into the opening move of XRP’s next major leg.
