The Launch Aftermath and Why People Are Worried
Monad’s mainnet went live on November 24, 2025, bringing with it plenty of hype around its performance promises—roughly 10,000 transactions per second with one-second finality. That’s impressive on paper, especially for a platform that’s fully compatible with Ethereum’s ecosystem. The MON token launched alongside it, with a total supply of 100 billion tokens. But here’s the catch: only about 10.8% of those tokens are actually circulating right now. That includes around 7.5% from a public sale and 3.3% from airdrops to early supporters.
The rest? Locked up with the team (27%), investors (19.7%), and reserved for treasury and ecosystem growth. This lopsided distribution has people nervous, and rightfully so. When those big insider allocations unlock down the road, there’s potential for serious sell pressure that could tank the price. It’s a common concern with new token launches, but Monad’s allocation feels particularly heavy at the top.
That said, there are some bright spots. Within just weeks of launch, Monad crossed $200 million in Total Value Locked across its DeFi apps—a sign that real money and users are flowing into the ecosystem. The project also partnered with Portal Labs to build out stablecoin infrastructure, positioning itself as more than just another fast blockchain. Still, the shadow of those upcoming unlocks looms large.
Reading the Charts and Market Signals
Right now, MON is trading around $0.018, down nearly 6% in the last 24 hours. That’s a steep drop from where things started, and it reflects a mix of early profit-taking, jitters about tokenomics, and probably some thin order books. Volume isn’t crazy high, which tells us retail traders are dipping their toes in but aren’t going all-in yet.
From a technical standpoint, the picture is mixed. The $0.025 mark—where the public sale happened—is acting as a stubborn ceiling. Every time the price pushes up near there, it gets smacked back down. On the flip side, there’s support building around $0.015 and $0.012, where buyers seem willing to step in. If MON can’t break through resistance soon, we’re probably looking at more sideways movement or even a drift lower.
Short-term indicators like the RSI are showing oversold conditions, which could mean a bounce is coming. But the longer-term moving averages are trending bearish, and the MACD is losing steam. Unless something changes—new partnerships, a surge in developer activity, or a broader market rally—it’s hard to see MON making a serious run higher in the immediate term. Volatility is the name of the game here, and traders should be ready for quick swings in either direction.
What the Indicators Are Telling Us
The RSI is sitting pretty low, suggesting MON might be oversold and due for a relief rally. The MACD shows momentum is fading even if there’s still a hint of bullish energy left. Moving averages paint a bearish picture on the daily chart, with short-term averages sitting below the longer ones. Volume spikes only seem to happen around big announcements, which means sustained interest isn’t really there yet. And while TVL growth is encouraging, the token unlock schedule is a ticking time bomb that could flip supply dynamics overnight.
Where MON Could Go From Here
Trying to predict price action for a brand-new, volatile token is tough, but let’s break it down into three scenarios over the next few months.
In the best case, Monad delivers on its promises. New partnerships roll out, developers start building cool stuff, and the stablecoin infrastructure gains real traction. If that happens, MON could reclaim $0.020 to $0.022, break through the $0.025 resistance, and push toward $0.030 or even $0.035. That would require consistent demand and a favorable crypto market overall, but it’s not out of the question.
The more realistic middle-ground scenario sees MON bouncing around between $0.012 and $0.022 for a while. Support holds near $0.015, but the ceiling at $0.025 stays intact. Token unlocks or negative news could push the price toward the lower end of that range temporarily, but patient buyers might slowly accumulate, eventually testing resistance again. It’s a slow grind with modest gains—nothing sexy, but manageable risk.
The downside case? That’s where things get ugly. If sell pressure from insiders and investors kicks in hard—or if the market perceives it’s about to—MON could break below $0.012 and spiral. In a worst-case panic, we could see prices fall to $0.005 or $0.008. Broader market weakness, regulatory issues, or just plain loss of confidence could accelerate that drop. The high fully diluted valuation compared to the tiny circulating supply makes MON especially vulnerable to these kinds of shocks.
Key Things to Watch
If you’re keeping an eye on MON, here’s what matters: when and how many tokens unlock for insiders and investors, new integrations with popular apps or stablecoin projects, whether TVL keeps growing without artificial incentives, how active developers are on-chain, and what’s happening in the broader crypto market. Any of these could swing the price significantly.
Should You Jump In Now or Wait?
If you’re thinking about trading MON, timing and risk management are everything. Staging an entry around $0.015 with a stop-loss just under $0.012 gives you a decent risk-reward setup. Averaging in gradually as the price consolidates could help smooth out the wild swings that come with those token unlocks. For long-term believers, the real question is whether Monad can move beyond the launch hype and build real, sustainable usage—whether that’s through transaction fees, stablecoin payments, or attracting developers who’d otherwise go to Solana or another Layer-1.
If Monad delivers on its speed and developer experience, and if the team is transparent about unlocks and keeps building trust with the community, there’s room for upside. But the current tokenomics and competitive landscape mean downside risk is very real. Proceed with caution, keep your position sizes reasonable, and don’t bet more than you’re willing to lose on a project this early and this volatile.
